| 基于奇异谱分析的江淮降水场预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 章毅之.基于奇异谱分析的江淮降水场预测模型研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(1):34-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章毅之 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气候中心,江西,南昌,330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局2005年气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2005Z02) |
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| 摘 要： | 中国的降水预报主要是对汛期(夏季)的单站降水量或区域的降水型态进行预报,而主要的预报方法为动力学方法和统计学方法。据此,利用江淮地区的月降水量标准化序列,得到江淮地区降水时空分布型态。并在此基础上,利用奇异谱分析和时间序列的分析方法,设计了统计学的降水预测模型,对江淮地区的月降水量进行了预测试验。结果表明,模型能对江淮降水场的趋势作出较好的预报,且递推时间短时预报效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 江淮 降水 奇异谱分析 AR模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9033（2006）01-0034-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年1月29日 |
Rainfall Predict Model Based On Singular Spectrum Analysis For Yangtze And Huaihe River Basin |
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| ZHANG Yi-zhi.Rainfall Predict Model Based On Singular Spectrum Analysis For Yangtze And Huaihe River Basin[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2006,29(1):34-37. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yi-zhi |
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| Institution: | JiangXi Provincial Climate Center,Nanchang 330046,China |
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| Abstract: | At present,using statistical or dynamic methods,we mainly predict the amount of rainfall of single station or the patterns of precipitation in certain area.In context of monthly-normalized precipitation data in the Yangtze and Huaihe river basins,the spatial pattern were investigated.Based on these conclusions and applied methods of singular spectrum analysis and time series analysis,statistical models of rainfall forecast were designed,and it were applied to do forecast experiments for monthly rainfall. |
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| Keywords: | Rainfall in Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins Singular Spectrum Analysis Autoregression Model |
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