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台风决策气象服务初探——以“纳沙”台风为例
引用本文:张永恒,张建忠,薛建军,王秀荣.台风决策气象服务初探——以“纳沙”台风为例[J].气象与减灾研究,2013(1):56-63.
作者姓名:张永恒  张建忠  薛建军  王秀荣
作者单位:国家气象中心
基金项目:中国气象局2012年度气象软科学研究项目“台风灾害防御气象服务对策研究”;国家气象中心青年基金项目“台风决策气象服务技术分析”
摘    要:随着经济增长和社会发展,台风灾害带来的损失越发严重和致命,科学、准确地为政府决策层提供决策服务产品,在保障人民生命财产安全、促进社会经济发展乃至稳定和谐等方面都起着非常重要的作用。立足于台风决策气象服务业务实践,通过完整再现2011年最强台风"纳沙"的决策气象服务过程,总结和提炼出目前台风决策气象服务的主要方式和产品编制要求、流程,并挖掘出服务的经验和亮点;同时,分析现实服务中客观存在的一些弊端和问题,思考进一步改进方案,旨在不断提升决策气象服务产品的质量,全力做好台风决策气象服务工作,从而为政府及相关部门应急决策管理提供科学的依据,为台风防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。

关 键 词:台风  决策气象服务  经验  思考

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON TYPHOON DECISION-MAKING METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE:A CASE STUDY OF "NEAST"
Zhang Yongheng,Zhang Jianzhong,Xue Jianjun,Wang Xiurong.PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON TYPHOON DECISION-MAKING METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE:A CASE STUDY OF "NEAST"[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2013(1):56-63.
Authors:Zhang Yongheng  Zhang Jianzhong  Xue Jianjun  Wang Xiurong
Institution:National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China
Abstract:With the economic growth and social development,the losses caused by typhoon disaster are more serious and fatal.Scientific and accurate decision-making meteorological service products for decision-making layer play the very important role on protecting of people's life and property safety,promoting social economy development,social stability and harmony.By the whole emersion about decision-making meteorological service of the strongest typhoon "Neast" in 2011,the method and facture of decision-making meteorological service are abstracted,and the experience and lightspot are summarized.Based on the experience,the objectively drawbacks and problem in actual service are analyzed and the ameliorative plan is pointed out.On these bases,it is more important to improve scheme for raising the quality of decision-making service,meeting the decision-making demand,offering directorial gist for emergency management and decision-making service for the disaster recovery
Keywords:Typhoon  Decision-making meteorological service  Experience  Thinking
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