| 浑太流域降水极值的统计分布特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡乃发,金昌杰,关德新,王安志,吴家兵,袁凤辉.浑太流域降水极值的统计分布特征[J].高原气象,2012,31(4):1166-1172. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡乃发 金昌杰 关德新 王安志 吴家兵 袁凤辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 森林与土壤生态国家重点实验室／中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 中国科学院研究生院,北京100039
2. 森林与土壤生态国家重点实验室／中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁沈阳,110016 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目，国家自然科学基金项目，林业公益性行业科研专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于浑太流域1966-2006年73个雨量站的日降水资料,建立了逐站年最大日降水量(AnnualMaximum,AM)序列和汛期4-9月日降水量<1.27mm.d-1的最长持续干旱天数(Munger Index,MI)序列,并对其时空分布规律进行了分析。采用广义极值(General Extreme Value,GEV)分布、广义帕雷托(General Pareto,GP)分布、韦布尔(Weibull,WB)分布、约翰逊SB(Jonhson SB,J-SB)分布、Burr分布和对数逻辑(Log-Logistic,L-LG)分布等6种极值分布函数对AM和MI序列进行了逐站分布拟合,结果表明,广泛应用的GEV分布整体拟合程度最好,有50个测站的KS检验统计量Dn<0.09,而未曾推广使用的Burr分布的拟合效果也非常好,有36个测站Dn<0.09。用GEV分布对50年一遇的AM和MI进行了估算,发现流域中心地区极端强降水和极端干旱的程度较高,分别为>208mm.d-1和>47d。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水极值 分布拟合 极端降水重现期 浑太流域 |
Characteristic of Statistical Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Hunhe-Taizihe Basins |
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| HU Nai-fa,-,JIN Chang-jie,GUAN De-xin,WANG An-zhi,WU Jia-bing,YUAN Feng-hui.Characteristic of Statistical Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Hunhe-Taizihe Basins[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(4):1166-1172. |
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| Authors: | HU Nai-fa - JIN Chang-jie GUAN De-xin WANG An-zhi WU Jia-bing YUAN Feng-hui |
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| Institution: | 1(1.State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology/Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China; 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data of 73 rainfall stations in Hunhe-Taizihe Basin from 1966 to 2006,the Annual Maximum(AM) daily precipitation series and the Munger Index(MI) series that the longest continuous dry days by daily precipitation <1.27 mm·d-1 in flood season from April to September were established at each rainfall station,and their spatial and temporal distributions were analyzed.Six extreme value distribution functions were used to fit the distributions of the AM and MI series at each station.The results show that the wildly used general extreme value(GEV)distribution displayed the best fit to these series on the whole,with the statistic Dn<0.09 of KS test at 50 stations.In addition,the unwildly used Burr distribution function also showed very good fit,with 36 stations’ Dn<0.09.A high level of extreme heavy rainfall and extreme drought in the centre of the basin was found when estimated the AM and MI with 50-year return period with GEV,whose AM and MI were >208 mm·d-1 and >47 d,respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme precipitation Distribution fitting Extreme precipitation return period Hunhe-Taizihe basins |
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