| 国华北地区汛期降水变化趋势的初步预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张启龙,翁学传,程明华.国华北地区汛期降水变化趋势的初步预测[J].高原气象,2001,20(2):121-126. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张启龙 翁学传 程明华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院海洋研究所, |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院“九五”重大应用基础研究项目“中国华北地区水资源变化，其调配研究”(KZ95 1 A1 2 0 3 0 2 )资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据华北地区18个代表站1951－1999年月降水资料，利用回归分析研究了华北地区汛期降水的长期变化特征，并从海洋对气候的影响出发，运用基于均生函数的生主成分建模方案对华北地区汛期降水的长期变化趋势进行了初步预测。结果表明：华北地区汛期降水的长期变化具有明显的地域性；在1951－1999年的49a间，华北I区汛期降水量减少了近64mm，而华北Ⅱ区则减少了119mm，华北I区汛期降水从偏多（少）到偏少（多）的转换期约为17a，而华北Ⅱ区约为20a。预测结果指出：1999－2008年的10a间，华北地区汛期降水的长期变化具有明显的地域性；在1951－1999年的49a间，华北I区汛期降水量减少了64mm，而华北Ⅱ区则减少了119mm；华北Ⅰ区汛期降水从偏多（少）到偏少（多）的转换期约为17a，而华北Ⅱ区约20a。预测结果指出：1999－2008年的10a间，华北地区汛期降水基本处于其多年平均状态，即不会出现明显的干旱现象。
|
| 关 键 词： | 华北地区 汛期 降水变化趋势预测 回归分析法 海洋 均生函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0534(2001)02-0121-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年6月19日 |
Primary Forecast for Precipitation Trend in Rainy Season in North China |
| |
| ZHANG Qi-Long,WENG Xue-chuan,CHENG Ming-hua.Primary Forecast for Precipitation Trend in Rainy Season in North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2001,20(2):121-126. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Qi-Long WENG Xue-chuan CHENG Ming-hua |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the monthly rainfall data of 18 stations in North China from 1951 to 1999, the long term variation of the precipitation in the rainy season in North China are simply analyzed by using regress analysis method. On the view of the influence of the ocean on the climate, the primary forecast for long term trends of the precipitation in the region are carried out by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model based mean generating function. The results show that the rainfall reduced by nearly 64 mm in Region I and 119 mm in Region II during 49 years (from 1951 to 1999). The transition period from the more (or less) rainfall to the less (or more) is about 17 years in Region I and 20 years in Region II. The preliminary forecast results show that during the next 10 years (1999-2008), summer rainfall in North China is basically in its multi year mean state, that is, no obvious drought phenomena. |
| |
| Keywords: | North China region Rainfall in rainy season Trend forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
