| 近五十年来华北地区旱涝特征与全球变化的研究及对未来趋势的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙淑清.近五十年来华北地区旱涝特征与全球变化的研究及对未来趋势的探讨[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):541-551. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙淑清 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院“九·五”重大应用基础研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对近五年华北地区的降水资料进行了时空分析，研究了水资源枯、丰的变迁及它们的地域特征。并对大气环流及海温异常进行了对比分析。结果表明：华北降水距平有明显的二十年左右的年代际变化。从总体上说，从５０年代初至７０年代为丰水期，７０年代至９０年代则为枯水期，而从１９９２年以后又开始变为正距平。这种年代际变化有很强的地域性，个别地区表现出与平均趋势截然不同的变化，对比丰水期和枯水期的环流状态发现，华北地区二
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| 关 键 词： | 华北旱涝 大气环流 海温异常 未来趋势 |
A STUDY ON THE FEATURES OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN NORTH CHINA IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND RELATIONS BETWEEN THEM AND GLOBAL CHANGES |
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| SUN Shu-qing.A STUDY ON THE FEATURES OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN NORTH CHINA IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND RELATIONS BETWEEN THEM AND GLOBAL CHANGES[J].Plateau Meteorology,1999,18(4):541-551. |
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| Authors: | SUN Shu-qing |
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| Abstract: | The rainfall data in North China in recent 50 years are analyzed. It indicates that an inter decade variation is existed. From 1950's to 1970's, the precipitation in North China was obviously above normal, called high flow period. From 1970's to 1990's, it was a dry period. This kind of 20 years alternation between dry and wet climate resulted from the variation and adjustment of general circulations. On the mean departure map of H at 500 hPa, it appears a wave train from southwest of Asia to the North America. Comparing SST anomalies between two periods, it shows that the pattern of SSTA is similar, but their signs are just opposite. The opposite distributions of SSTA in those two periods not only appears in the raining season, but also in their preceding winter and spring. The SST forcing played an indispensable role in the inter decade variation. According to the results above, a preliminary forecasting of precipitation trend in North China has been made for the following 20 years. |
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| Keywords: | Wet and dry periods in North China General circulation SST anomaly Forecasting of climate trend |
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