| 甘肃省春末夏初干旱与亚欧前期环流的关系 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨善恭.甘肃省春末夏初干旱与亚欧前期环流的关系[J].高原气象,1990,9(4):443-446. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨善恭 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 春末夏初少雨是青藏高原东侧天气气候的一种重要现象。它对高原东侧广大地区的农业影响很大。此时正值春麦拔节到乳熟的需水关键期,因此降水的多少决定着产量的高低。根据文献1]的分析,甘肃中部5—6月的降水量与定西地区夏田单产的相关系数为0.478,信度为0.05。我们曾计算过古浪县5—6月降水量与春小麦产量之间的相关系数为0.668,信度高达0.001。这些说明产量在很大程度上取决于降水的多少,因此春末夏初降水的预报,一向是我省广大台站的重要课题。本文介绍了我们近年业务预报方法的建立和应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 环流 回归方程 降水量 预报 |
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DROUGHT IN GANSU PROVINCE IN LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER AND CIRCULATIONS OF ANTECEDENT PERIOD OVER EURASIAN AREA |
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| Yang Shangong.RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DROUGHT IN GANSU PROVINCE IN LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER AND CIRCULATIONS OF ANTECEDENT PERIOD OVER EURASIAN AREA[J].Plateau Meteorology,1990,9(4):443-446. |
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| Authors: | Yang Shangong |
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| Institution: | Lanzhou Central Observatory |
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| Abstract: | Using the multi-yearly mean data of 500 hPa height and their departure from the normal during the period of from May to June of 1951-1988 and the departure data of 6 representative station temperature and 14 representative station rainfall in Gansu Province at the same period, the intercomparisons of antecedent period circulations on 500 hPa for 5 typical drought and wet years in Gansu Province in late spring and early summer were firstly made. Based on the intercomparisons, the multi-regression equations for rainfall anomaly forecast were found. The trial forecast in late spring and early summer in 1989 show the rainfall anomaly forecast skill is quite good. |
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| Keywords: | Height over key areas NW flow index Regression equation Middle-Asia ridge |
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