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| 一基于Web-GIS技术的滑坡灾害预报预警业务系统 | |
| 引用本文： | 单九生,魏丽,边晓庚,章毅之,刘献耀,刘修奋.一基于Web-GIS技术的滑坡灾害预报预警业务系统[J].高原气象,2008,27(1):222-229. |
| 作者姓名： | 单九生 魏丽 边晓庚 章毅之 刘献耀 刘修奋 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 江西省气象台,江西,南昌330046 2. 江西省地质环境监测总站,江西,南昌330012 3. 江西省气象科学研究所,江西,南昌330046 4. 江西省勘察设计研究院,江西,南昌330096 |
| 基金项目： | 科技部社会公益面上项目 |
| 摘 要： | 2004年开始在江西地质灾害易发区内建立了8个滑坡灾害监测点。通过定点监测试验、历史资料的统计分析和应用滑坡稳定性原理等方法,揭示了我国东部丘陵区降雨诱发滑坡灾害的形成机理。分析表明,降水对滑坡的诱发作用,不仅取决于当日雨量,而且与前期过程降水量有关,但前期各日雨量的影响程度是不相同的;饱和状态下的滑坡,其稳定性主要与滑坡的条块重量(W)和总的孔隙水压力与总的上浮压力之比(ru)有关。在监测试验和统计分析的基础上,建立了滑坡稳定性预报预警报的数学模型,确定了滑坡灾害发生时的降水临界值。应用Web-GIS技术,建立了滑坡灾害预报预警的实时业务系统。在近年来的预报服务中,多次成功地发布了滑坡灾害预报和警报,取得了明显的成效。 |
| 关 键 词： | 滑坡灾害 稳定性动力数学模型 日综合有效雨量 Web-GIS技术 预报预警 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0534（2008）01-0222-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-02 |
A Operational System of Landslide Disaster Forecasting and Warning Based on Web-GIS Technique |
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| SHAN Jiu-sheng,WEI Li,BIAN Xiao-geng,ZHANG Yi-zhi,LIU Xian-yao,LIU Xiu-fen.A Operational System of Landslide Disaster Forecasting and Warning Based on Web-GIS Technique[J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(1):222-229. | |
| Authors: | SHAN Jiu-sheng WEI Li BIAN Xiao-geng ZHANG Yi-zhi LIU Xian-yao LIU Xiu-fen |
| Abstract: | Eight landslide disaster monitoring stations have been established in the regions where geological disaster took place frequently since 2004.Using the observation and analysis of the statistic data as well as the principle of landslide stability,we finally mastered the principle of how landslide took place on account of the continuous rain at the hilly land in the east of China.The study makes it clear that weather or not the rain conduce landslide not only depends on the real time precipitation rainfall,but also has relevance to the previous volume from weather process,however the influence of daily rainfall is absolutely different.In the saturation condition,the stability of landside is related with the ratio of the total pressure of interstitial water to the total uplifting pressure besides the weight of the Landslide strips.Based on the experiment and statistics,the model of Landslide disaster forecasting and warning with the very critical precipitation rainfall has been founded.By combining the Web-GIS technology with the spatio-temporal forecast of Landslide disaster,the real time system has been established by which the products of the Landslide disaster forecast are automatically promulgated.It is prove to be effect in the forecast service in the last years for successfully promulgating forecast and warning several times by which there are several hundreds of people and more than thousand million of property survived. |
| Keywords: | Landslide disaster Dynamic model of stability Daily integrated effective rainfall Web-GIS Technique Forecasting and warning |
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