| 新疆地区平均气温空间插值方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王智,师庆东,常顺利,吴友均,梁凤超.新疆地区平均气温空间插值方法研究[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):201-208. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王智 师庆东 常顺利 吴友均 梁凤超 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046／新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830046／新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1981—2008年新疆地区53个测站和甘肃青海邻近10个测站的多年月(年)平均气温进行探索性分析和试验性插值的基础上,以"多元回归+残差内插+地形调节"和"海拔订正+零海拔插值+地形调节"两种混合性气温空间插值方法对该地区的多年月(年)平均气温进行了空间分布插值、交叉验证和对比分析。结果表明,单一的任何一种确定性函数或地统计方法都不能对新疆地区的气温进行较准确的插值,缺乏对影响因子的考虑,与实际情况相差较远;两种混合性插值方法都可以得到较精确的气温空间插值结果,空间分布一致,精度都随月份有所差异,对夏、秋季的插值结果较冬、春季的稳定、精度高;两种方法对夏、秋季各月的插值结果并无显著差异,而在冬、春季后者的误差大于前者。整体而言,"多元回归+残差内插+地形调节"的方法较"海拔订正+零海拔插值+地形调节"法更准确、稳定,但两种方法各有优缺点,应根据实际应用情况进行选择。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆地区 气温 空间插值 数字高程模型 地形因子 多元线性回归 |
Study on Spatial Interpolation Method of Mean Air Temperature in Xinjiang |
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| WANG Zhi,-,SHI Qing-dong,-,CHANG Shun-li,-,WU You-jun,-,LIANG Feng-chao.Study on Spatial Interpolation Method of Mean Air Temperature in Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(1):201-208. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhi - SHI Qing-dong - CHANG Shun-li - WU You-jun - LIANG Feng-chao |
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| Institution: | 1-3(1.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Xinjiang,Urumqi 830046,China; 2.Institute of Arid Eco-Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China; 3.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the sufficient exploratory analysis and experimental interpolation for the perennial mean month or year air temperature at all meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1981 to 2008,two methods,the ’multiple regression+residual interpolation+topography regulation’ and ’elevation effect correction+zero elevation interpolation+topography regulation’,had been used to simulate the spatial distribution of air temperature for multi-yearly month or year mean temperature in the study area,at the same time,cross validation and comparison analysis had been taken for two methods.The results showed that any single deterministic function or geo-statistical method can not precisely simulate the spatial distribution of monthly or annual air temperature in Xinjiang area,because the simulated result could not reflect the practical situation and the method itself had not considered into some major influence factors;nevertheless,both mixed and comprehensive methods can get fairly accurate spatial simulated results of air temperature,which is consistent with each other in spatial distribution,but have some differences in months,stable and more accurate in summer and autumn;by testing of cross validation and comparison analysis,both methods have same precision and stability in summer and autumn,from May to October,but the later error is higher than the former,obviously in winter and spring,from November to April,and comparatively speaking,the former is more accurate and stable than the later,however,both methods have each advantage and disadvantage,choosing the more appropriate one needs actual applying situation. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang region Air temperature Spatial interpolation Digital elevation model Topography factor Multiple linear regression |
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