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青藏高原冬季积雪关键区视热源特征与中国西南春旱的联系
引用本文:过霁冰,徐祥德,施晓晖,徐杰.青藏高原冬季积雪关键区视热源特征与中国西南春旱的联系[J].高原气象,2012,31(4):900-909.
作者姓名:过霁冰  徐祥德  施晓晖  徐杰
作者单位:1. 上海市奉贤区气象局,上海,201416
2. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京,100081
3. 上海海洋气象台,上海,201300
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目,中日政府间合作JICA计划科技部国际合作项目,科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项,中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金重点项目
摘    要:利用1955-2010年地面气象站积雪深度、降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,采用统计相关,异常指数与相关矢等计算方法,对2010年西南春旱区域性特征、青藏高原积雪视热源特征进行了综合分析,研究了西南春旱典型区域,获得了影响西南地区春季降水的青藏高原积雪视热源关键区。对高原积雪关键区积雪深度与该区域大气视热源的相关性进行了综合分析,发现青藏高原积雪关键区2月的视热源代表性最好。重点分析了青藏高原积雪关键区2月大气视热源与后期西南严重春旱区降水的异常指数年际变化及其相关关系,结果表明,冬季青藏高原积雪关键区积雪浅、整层大气视热源偏高,有利于西南地区春季出现干燥的偏北气流,导致我国西南地区春雨异常偏少。青藏高原积雪关键区视热源对我国西南春旱预测具有明显的指示意义。

关 键 词:青藏高原  积雪深度  视热源  西南春旱

Characteristics of Winter Apparent Heat Source in the Key Area of Snow Cover on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Spring Drought in Southwest China
GUO Ji-bing,XU Xiang-de,SHI Xiao-hui,XU Jie.Characteristics of Winter Apparent Heat Source in the Key Area of Snow Cover on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Spring Drought in Southwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(4):900-909.
Authors:GUO Ji-bing  XU Xiang-de  SHI Xiao-hui  XU Jie
Institution:1.Fengxian District Meteorological Office,Shanghai 201416,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China; 3.Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center,Shanghai 201300,China)
Abstract:Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,observational snow depth and precipitation data in China,adopting the statistical correlation model,including anomaly index and the correlation vector calculation method,the regional characteristics of spring drought in Southwest China and the ’strong signal’ of snow cover and heat source in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were analyzed.The typical region of spring drought in Southwest China was studied and then the key area of atmospheric apparent heat source of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was got which in its later stage influenced the spring precipitation over the typical region of spring drought in Southwest China.Through the comprehensive analysis of the correlation between the snow depth and the atmospheric apparent heat source in all levels over the ’strong signal’ Key area of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,it is found that February is the precursor ’strong signal’ typical month of the snow cold source in the Key area of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Through the anomaly index and the correlation vector analysis,the correlation of the annual change of anomaly index between the apparent heat source(Q1) in ’strong signal’ typical month(February) in the Key area of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and spring precipitation in the later period over the area of spring drought in Southwest China were focused on.Then,the relation between the two anomaly index above have a character of ’anti-phase’ in annual change is found.The analyzed result showed that when the snow depth on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was shallow,the apparent heat source(Q1) in the Key area of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was high.And this was beneficial for relative dry northerly flow over Southwest China in spring.This also lead to a abnormal less precipitation in spring in Southwest China.The atmospheric apparent heat source in all levels over the Key area of snow cover on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has a obviously precursory effect to predict the spring drought in Southwest China.
Keywords:Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Snow depth Apparent heat source l Spring drought in SouthwestChina
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