| 近30年甘肃省气温时空变异分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马中华,张勃,张建香,王兴梅.近30年甘肃省气温时空变异分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(3):760-767. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马中华 张勃 张建香 王兴梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，公益性行业(气象)科研专项，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目，生态经济学省级重点学科项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于ArcGIS Analyst平台,采用协同克里格(CoKriging)插值方法,对1979—2008年甘肃省旬平均气温进行了空间插值,得到1km×1km各旬的平均气温表面数据。第36旬气温插值结果的平均误差、均方根误差、平均标准差、标准化平均误差和均方根标准差的平均分别为-0.00046,1.998,1.809,0.0035和1.087℃。利用插值计算结果和气象站观测数据,分析了旬、月和年平均气温的时空变异特征。结果表明,空间上东南部地区的气温变异较小,其他地区的变异较大;时间上第23-24旬、第24-26旬、第25-27旬、第33-35旬和第34-36旬的平均气温呈平稳下降趋势,第4-6旬、第5-7旬、第6-8旬、第7-9旬和第8-10旬的平均气温呈平稳上升趋势,7月气温呈不显著下降趋势,3,5和10月的平均气温略呈上升趋势。1979—2008年甘肃省的年平均气温为8.05℃,3年滑动平均最低气温(1983—1985年)为7.13℃,最高气温(2005—2007年)为8.82℃,气温上升趋势较为明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温 时空变异 协同克里格法 ArcGIS |
Analyses on Spatial-Temporal Differentiations of Air Temperature in Gansu Province during 1979--2008 |
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| MA Zhong-hua,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Jian-xiang,WANG Xing-mei.Analyses on Spatial-Temporal Differentiations of Air Temperature in Gansu Province during 1979--2008[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(3):760-767. |
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| Authors: | MA Zhong-hua ZHANG Bo ZHANG Jian-xiang WANG Xing-mei |
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| Institution: | (The College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the ArcGIS Analyst platform,the ten-day mean air temperature in Gansu Province during 1979-2008 is analyzed by the CoKriging method with spatial interpolation,and 1 km×1 km surface data of ten-day mean air temperature are obtained.The results show that the averages of mean error,root mean square error,mean standard deviation,standardized mean error and root mean square standard deviation are-0.00046,1.998,1.809,0.0035 and 1.087 ℃,respectively.According to the characteristic of spatial-temporal differentiations of ten-day,monthly and annual mean air temperatures,it is found that there is lesser differentiation in the Southeast,and larger in other region in space.The trend of ten-day mean air temperature has been steadily dropping in the periods of the 23th-24th,the 24th-26th,the 25th-27th,the 33th-35th and the 34th-36th,in contrast,it has a steadily decreasing trend in the periods of the 4th-6th,the 5th-7th,the 6th-8th,the 7th-9th and the 8th-10th.Moreover,the monthly mean air temperature appears slight descendent trend in July and slight ascendent trends in March,May and October.The annual mean air temperature in Gansu Province in 1979-2008 is 8.05 ℃.The minimun temperature of 3-year running mean in 1983-1985 is 7.13 ℃ and the maximum temperature,8.82 ℃,which has obviously ascendent trend. |
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| Keywords: | Air temperature Spatial-temporal differentiations CoKriging ArcGIS |
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