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| 近50年渭河流域秋雨的特征与成因分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 薛春芳,董文杰,李青,王式功.近50年渭河流域秋雨的特征与成因分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(2):409-417. |
| 作者姓名： | 薛春芳 董文杰 李青 王式功 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学大气科学学院／甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰卅730000／陕西省气象局,陕西西安710014 2. 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京,100875 3. 陕西省气象局,陕西西安,710014 4. 兰州大学大气科学学院／甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰卅,730000 |
| 摘 要： | 利用渭河流域64个测站1960-2009年秋季(9～10月)的月降水量和≥0.1mm逐日降水量资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用线性倾向估计、EOF、Morlet小波分析、SVD及相关分析方法系统地分析了渭河流域秋雨的变化趋势和分布特征,着重研究了与此相关的欧亚地区秋季大气环流的年代际变化以及渭河流域秋雨与前期海温、青藏高原积雪和大气环流特征量等之间的关系。结果表明,近50年渭河流域秋雨呈线性减少趋势,其中中雨和暴雨减少趋势明显,突变发生在1985年前后,1960-1985年为偏多时段,1986-2000年为偏少时段,2001年以来又趋向偏多。渭河流域秋雨从南到北呈递减分布,该流域内各站秋雨主要表现为一致的减少趋势,其上游的漳县、甘谷和北部的合水呈增加趋势。欧亚大陆秋季大气环流明显的年代际变化造成了渭河流域秋雨多寡模态的变化。欧洲西部高压脊、西风带低槽和西太平洋副热带高压是造成渭河流域降水多寡的主要影响系统。根据渭河流域秋雨与大气内外部因子的关系,初步建立了渭河流域秋雨预测的概念模型。 |
| 关 键 词： | 秋雨 渭河流域 气候特征 |
Climate Characteristic and Formative Cause of Autumn Rain in Weihe River Basin in Recent 50 Years |
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| XUE Chun-fang,-,DONG Wen-jie,LI Qing,WANG Shi-gong.Climate Characteristic and Formative Cause of Autumn Rain in Weihe River Basin in Recent 50 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(2):409-417. | |
| Authors: | XUE Chun-fang - DONG Wen-jie LI Qing WANG Shi-gong |
| Institution: | 1(1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China; 2.Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Xi′an 710014,China; 3.College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China) |
| Abstract: | Autumn rain is one of the important climate characteristics in the Weihe River basin.With the methods linear trend estimate,EOF,Morlet wavelet analysis,SVD and correlation analysis,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the autumn rain in Weihe watershed are analyzed by using the autumn precipitation data at 64 observational stations in the period of 1960-2009.Meanwhile,the interdecadal variations of atmospheric circulation in Eurasia in autumn and relationships between the autumn precipitation and the SST in Pacific ocean,the snow cover in Tibetan Plateau,and the atmospheric circulation characteristic values are emphatically analyzed.The results show that the trends of autumn precipitation and rain day number are linear decrease.There is an abrupt change about 1985,the autumn precipitation and rain day number are more than normal in 1960-1985 and 2001-2009,and are less than normal in 1986-2000.The precipitation and rain day numbers decrease from south to north gradually in this region,and the precipitation trends at most stations are decreasing but precipitation in Zhangxian,Gangu and Heshui are increas.The evident interdecadal variations of atmospheric circulation in Eurasia in autumn cause the change of autumn precipitation from a strong pattern in 1964-1975 to a weak one in 1986-1999.High pressure ridge in western Europe,trough in westerlies and western Pacific subtropical high are the main influence systems of autumn rain in Weihe River basin.Based on the analysis of the relationships between the autumn precipitation and internal and external factors of atmosphere,a concept model of autumn precipitation prediction in Weihe River basin is built. |
| Keywords: | Weihe River basin Autumn rain Climate characteristic |
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