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| 基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的极端高温事件研究及其综合指标的建立 | |
| 引用本文： | 侯威,章大全,钱忠华,封国林.基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的极端高温事件研究及其综合指标的建立[J].高原气象,2012,31(2):329-341. |
| 作者姓名： | 侯威 章大全 钱忠华 封国林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081／中国科学院东亚区域气候一环境重点实验室／中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 2. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081／兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 3. 兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州,730000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，科技支撑项目，全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 基于中国气象局公布的1961-2006年中国165个国际交换站无缺测的逐日平均气温资料,利用随机重排去趋势波动分析(S-DFA)方法,计算并分析了中国极端高温事件阈值的空间分布特征,并对S-DFA方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验。从可预报性的角度给出了极端高温事件强度综合指标的定义。该综合指标将极端高温事件的发生频次和强度综合起来,兼顾不同地区各自特有的区域气候背景,进一步说明综合指标定义的合理性。基于极端高温事件综合指标的空间分布规律,将1961-2006年间中国极端高温事件分为4个不同等级的地区。极端高温事件综合指标在20世纪90年代初期之前一直保持平稳的波动变化,之后则一直处于上升之中,尤其是在90年代中后期开始迅速上升。 |
| 关 键 词： | 随机重排去趋势波动分析 极端高温事件 阈值 综合指标 |
Research about the Extreme High Temperature Event and Its Composite Index Based on Stochastic Re-Sort Detrended Fluctuation Analysis |
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| HOU Wei,-,ZHANG Da-Quan,QIAN Zhong-Hua,FENG Guo-lin.Research about the Extreme High Temperature Event and Its Composite Index Based on Stochastic Re-Sort Detrended Fluctuation Analysis[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(2):329-341. | |
| Authors: | HOU Wei - ZHANG Da-Quan QIAN Zhong-Hua FENG Guo-lin |
| Institution: | 1,3(1.National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China; 2.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperature East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China; 3.College of Atmospheric and Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China) |
| Abstract: | Using S-DFA method,the thresholds of extreme high-temperature events from 1961 to 2006 are obtained and spatial-temporal characteristic distributions are analyzed.The effectiveness of S-DFA method is also validated through extreme event detection using the temperature series.Giving a definition composite index of extreme low-temperature event from the angle of predictability,this composite index integrate the information of the frequency and the strength of the extreme low-temperature events,and consider the characteristic of regional climate system.Based on the composite index,China are divided into four different zones by their own rank.The composite index of extreme high-temperature event in the 20th century until the early 1990′s have maintained smooth fluctuations,but after the early 1990′s,the composite indicator has been on the rise,especially in the late 1990′s rapidly rise. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic re-sort detrended fluctuation analysis Extreme high temperature event Threshold Composite index |
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