| NEX-GDDP和CMIP5对青藏高原地区近地面气象场历史和未来模拟的评估与偏差校正 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈说,叶涛,刘苇航,王爱慧.NEX-GDDP和CMIP5对青藏高原地区近地面气象场历史和未来模拟的评估与偏差校正[J].高原气象,2021(2):257-271. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈说 叶涛 刘苇航 王爱慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学地理科学学部环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;广州大学地理科学学院;北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602404);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0606)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 青藏高原是全球变化研究的热点区域,气候模式模拟是研究该区域气候变化的重要数据来源。本文使用基于中国地面台站的插值格点数据集(CN05.1),对国际气候耦合模式第5次比较计划(CMIP5)及其高分辨率统计降尺度数据集(NEX-GDDP)中15个模式1966-2005年间的逐日最高/最低气温、降水和平均风速在青藏高原区域的模拟能力进行了评估。使用多领域间影响模型比较计划(ISI-MIP)的偏差校正方法对上述数据进行了训练和验证,并对未来时期模式数据进行了校正。研究表明:(1)训练时期(1986-2005年),NEX-GDDP高估了日最高气温(1.04℃)和日最低气温(0.23℃),低估了日降水量(-0.11 mm),CMIP5低估了日平均风速(-0.11 m·s-1)。年/季平均值/总量和极端值存在较大偏差。(2)校正后,验证时期(1966-1985年)各变量逐日数据的相关系数提高(除气温外),均方根误差下降,平均偏差幅度减小。各变量的年/季平均值/总量和极端值的偏差大幅减小。(3)对于未来时期(2006-2095年),校正过程保留了原有数据年/季平均值/总量和极端值的变化趋势,调整了各要素平均值/总量和极端值的基准值和空间分布特征,以更准确地衔接历史时期的规律,可为该地区未来气候变化及其影响研究提供重要参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 NEX-GDDP CMIP5 评估 偏差校正 |
Evaluation and Bias Correction of the Historical and Future Near-Surface Climate Forcing in NEX-GDDP and CMIP5 over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau |
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| CHEN Shuo,YE Tao,LIU Weihang,WANG Aihui.Evaluation and Bias Correction of the Historical and Future Near-Surface Climate Forcing in NEX-GDDP and CMIP5 over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2021(2):257-271. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Shuo YE Tao LIU Weihang WANG Aihui |
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| Institution: | (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Geographic Science,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management&Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is a hot spot in global change research,and climate models are important data sources for studying climate change in this region. In this study,using a gridded meteorological dataset based on ground observation(CN05. 1),we evaluated the performance of 15 models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)and their downscaled high-resolution dataset(NEX-GDDP)in simulating daily maximum/minimum near-surface air temperature,precipitation and mean near-surface wind speed in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 1966-2005. A trend-preserving bias correction,the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISI-MIP)approach,was used to train and validate the above data and further applied to bias-correct CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP data in the future period. Our results indicate that:(1)In the training period(1986-2005),NEX-GDDP tends to overestimate daily maximum air temperature(1. 04 ℃)and daily minimum air temperature(0. 23 ℃),and underestimate precipitation(-0. 11 mm). CMIP5 underestimates daily mean near-surface wind speed(-0. 11 m·s-1). There are large biases in annual/seasonal mean/total values and extreme values.(2)In the validation period(1966-1985),bias correction increased correlation coefficient of daily data(except air temperature),and reduced root square error and mean bias. It also greatly reduced the bias in annual/seasonal mean/total values and extreme values.(3)In the future period(2006-2095),our bias-correction process preserved the trend of annual/seasonal mean/total values and extreme values,adjusted their base values and spatial distribution to enable a better connection to historical values. Our results can provide important reference for researches on future climate change and its impacts in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region. |
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| Keywords: | Qinghai-Xizang Plateau NEX-GDDP CMIP5 evaluation bias correction |
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