|
|||||
|
|
| 浙江省滑波、泥石流多发区气象预警研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 杜惠良,钮学新,殷坤龙,谢剑明,刘礼领.浙江省滑波、泥石流多发区气象预警研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(1):151-158. |
| 作者姓名： | 杜惠良 钮学新 殷坤龙 谢剑明 刘礼领 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省气象台,浙江,杭州,310017 2. 浙江省气象科学研究所,浙江,杭州,310017 3. 中国地质大学,湖北,武汉,430074 |
| 基金项目： | 浙江省科技厅重大攻关项目“浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范“和重点项目“浙江省暴雨预报系统研究”课题共同资助 |
| 摘 要： | 在对浙江最主要的突发性地质滑坡、泥石流子体与降雨量的统计分析后,提出了有效降雨量概念,通过统计分析,获得了计算有效降雨量关系式和四个多发区的临界有效降雨量。针对滑坡、泥石流,应用MM5中尺度预报模式进行本地化,并结合卫星和雷达的客观雨量预报方法。三种客观预报雨量的方法互相补充。经2003年和2004年试报,对雨量预报和滑坡、泥石流预测有较好的效果。 |
| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 泥石流 有效降雨量 雨量定量预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0534（2006）01-0151-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-06-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-06-232004-11-01 |
Study of Meteorological Forecasting and Warning for Landslide and Debris Flow in Zhejiang Province |
|
| DU Hui-liang,NIU Xue-xing,YIN Kun-long,XIE Jian-ming,LIU Li-ling.Study of Meteorological Forecasting and Warning for Landslide and Debris Flow in Zhejiang Province[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006,25(1):151-158. | |
| Authors: | DU Hui-liang NIU Xue-xing YIN Kun-long XIE Jian-ming LIU Li-ling |
| Institution: | 1. Zhejiang Meteorology Observatory, Hangzhou 310021, China ;2. Zhejiang Meteorology Science Institute, Hangzhou 310021, China; 3. China University of Geoscience, Wuhang 430074, China |
| Abstract: | Based on statistic analysesbetween landslide,debris flow and precipitation,the efficient precipitation which will cause the landslide and debris flow events wasgiven.Then we got efficient precipitation formula,critical efficient precipitation in four high-risk zone for landslide or debris flow in the province.To better forecast landslide and debris flow,we localized mesoscale model,the well-known MM5,and the nowcasting technique of satellite and radar also were utilized.The three methods could supplement each other.After testing daily forecast duringthe period of 2003-2004,the result showed that the method has a quite good behavior in precipitation forecast and landslide,debris flowforecast. |
| Keywords: | Landslide and debris flow Effective rainfall Quantitative forecasting of rainfall |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |