| 概率权重矩法及其在Weibull分布参数估计中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张秀芝.概率权重矩法及其在Weibull分布参数估计中的应用[J].海洋预报,1994,11(3):55-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张秀芝 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布各参数的概率权重矩表达式，估计Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布参数，并用该分布推算一百年一遇最大风速值，与目前国内较为流行的极值Ⅰ型和对数正态分布推算值比较接近。通过统计检验对概率权重矩法与最小二乘法和最大似然法进行比较，结果表明，虽然其拟合优度与最小二乘法和最大似然法相当，但计算过程要简单得多。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率权重矩法 韦伯分布参数 大风 风速值 |
APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY WEIGHTED MOMENTS TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS IN WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION |
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| Zhang Xiuzhi.APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY WEIGHTED MOMENTS TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS IN WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION[J].Marine Forecasts,1994,11(3):55-61. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Xiuzhi |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center. Beijing |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the probability weighted momented (PWM ) formulasof the parameters of weibul distribution were used to estimate these parameteres, then application of the ditribution. was made to evaluate themaxmal wind speed rarely appeared among 100 years, Results from theeeyaiuation are very close to those from,Extreme i and log-normal distrbution which are .very popular in our country recetly Statistical tests'for the PWM method, the least square and the maxmum likelihood weretaken and show that their fitting ability is almost same, but the calculation process for the PWM method i'ifauch simpler. |
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| Keywords: | probability weighted momented metliod parameter astimate for Weibue distribution statistical test |
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