| 热带气旋的年月频数预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢定升,张晓晖,梁凤仪.热带气旋的年月频数预测[J].海洋预报,2000,17(4):60-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢定升 张晓晖 梁凤仪 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台,广州 |
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| 基金项目： | 本项研究由国家“九五”重点项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”(96-908-05-07-01)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文使用西太平洋海温格点和热带气旋的年月频数资料，计算相关系数，选取若干组合因子，用权重回归、多项式曲线、指数曲线等预报原理和方法，对西太平洋、南海以及登陆我国(或广东)的热带气旋的年、月频数进行预测试验，取得较好的经验和预报结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 频数 西太平洋 海温 预报 登陆 南海 多项式曲线 组合因子 测试 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-08-01 |
ON THE FOREAST OF YEARLY OR MONTHLY FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE |
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| Xie Dingsheng,Zhang Xiaohui,Liang Fengyi.ON THE FOREAST OF YEARLY OR MONTHLY FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE[J].Marine Forecasts,2000,17(4):60-68. |
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| Authors: | Xie Dingsheng Zhang Xiaohui Liang Fengyi |
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| Institution: | Xie Dingsheng
,Zhang Xiaohui
,Liang Fengyi
;(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observation, Guangzhou) |
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| Abstract: | In this article, by using the grid point data of sea-surface temperature (SST) of Pacific ocean and the frequency data of yearly or monthly tropical cyclone, the correlation coefficient between the two parameters has been calculated and a group of factors have been selected. And using the methods of weight regression, polynomial curve and exponent curve, the yearly and monthly frequency of tropical cyclone that landed in China are forecasted, and the results show reasonably good. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone fitting of curve climetological forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
