| 利用水文气象要素因子的变化趋势预测南海区赤潮的发生 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俊峰,俞建良,庞海龙,邓文君,吴迪生,李华健,赵雪,陈惠君.利用水文气象要素因子的变化趋势预测南海区赤潮的发生[J].海洋预报,2006,23(1):9-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俊峰 俞建良 庞海龙 邓文君 吴迪生 李华健 赵雪 陈惠君 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局南海预报中心,广州,510300 |
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| 摘 要： | 有关文献指出:“赤潮发生起因因种而异……,但大体上气候气象条件诸如温度、风力、风向,季风转换、气-压等;海况、潮汐、流等以及海水的理化特征,如盐度、营养元素等,这些皆会成为某种赤潮爆发的因子或诱导因素”。根据赤潮监控区监测资料分析: 在南海赤潮多发区,海水富营养化条件已经具备,因此气象、水文要素条件就成为赤潮爆发的重要启动因子,而大气环流的维持与变化决定了气象、水文要素因子的稳定与变化,然而根据赤潮生物培养试验,从初期繁殖到后期的爆发性繁殖,直至达到赤潮生物密度,这一过程一般都需要4-5d的时间。针对这一现象,通过对近10a的赤潮发生个例进行统计分析,统计其生成前期的大气环流形势和水文气象要素,分析出赤潮生成前期的环流模式和筛选出诱发赤潮爆发的重要因子,并以此来作为预报赤潮生成的方法。依照此方法对2003年的赤潮进行预报,其效果是令人满意的。
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| 关 键 词： | 赤潮 气象条件 大气环流 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-0239（2006）1-0009-11 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-15 |
FORECAST RED TIDE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY USING THE TRANSFORMATION TREND OF HYDROLOGY AND METEOROLOGY ENVIRONMENT FACTORS |
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| ZhANG jun-feng,YU jian-liang,PANG hai-long,DENG wen-jun,WU di-sheng,LI hua-jian,ZHAO-xue,CHEN hui-jun.FORECAST RED TIDE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY USING THE TRANSFORMATION TREND OF HYDROLOGY AND METEOROLOGY ENVIRONMENT FACTORS[J].Marine Forecasts,2006,23(1):9-19. |
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| Authors: | ZhANG jun-feng YU jian-liang PANG hai-long DENG wen-jun WU di-sheng LI hua-jian ZHAO-xue CHEN hui-jun |
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| Institution: | Forecast center of South China Sea Guangzhou 510300 China |
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| Abstract: | Many literatures point out that there are diverse factors causing Red Tide eruption, but one of invariable factor is weather condition involve temperature, wind power, monsoon transform, air pressure, sea condition, tide, ocean current, salinity, eutrophic environment and so on. In the red tide high frequency area of the South China Sea, the eutrophic environment of sea water has already possess. So, meteorological phenomena, hydrology element terms become the importance factor to the red tide eruption. And atmospheric circulation maintenance of change decide meteorological phenomena, hydrology key element not to stabilize or change, moreover, living of red tide beings breed from initial stage to explosive reproduction stage, until reaching the biological density of the red tide, generally taking 4-5days. We analyze the red tide examples in past 10 years, count the weather circulation situation and hydro-meteorological element of it produce previous, find previous circulation mode and bring out important factors. The predicted result in 2003 according to this method was satisfied. |
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| Keywords: | Red tide meteorological condition weather circulation |
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