| 用贝叶斯方法推算设计波高 |
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| 引用本文： | 王起,王超.用贝叶斯方法推算设计波高[J].海洋预报,1995,12(4):59-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王起 王超 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨电工学院，天津大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用长期概率预报提供波浪要素设计值是海洋工程中不可缺少的内容之一，文中介绍了一种基於贝叶斯原理的新计算方法，它较传统统计方法有明显的优越性，不仅可以通过补充新信息不断修正原有的估算结果，而且可以避免传统方法带来诸多不确定性，文中以北海中部百年一遇设计波高为例进行了计算。
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| 关 键 词： | 波高 贝叶斯法 不确定性 波浪 海洋工程 |
A METHOD OF BAYESIAN ESTIMATES FOR DESIGN WAVE HEIGHTS |
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| Wang Qi, Wang Chao, Wang Dongchao.A METHOD OF BAYESIAN ESTIMATES FOR DESIGN WAVE HEIGHTS[J].Marine Forecasts,1995,12(4):59-66. |
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| Authors: | Wang Qi Wang Chao Wang Dongchao |
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| Institution: | Wang Qi; Wang Chao; Wang Dongchao(Harbin Institute of Electrical Technology) (Tianjin University) |
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| Abstract: | The Bayesian method has significant advantages over the classical method since all Typesof uncertainty (Statistical, Modelling, .....) associated with design wave heights can behandled.Bayes theorem allows the prelininary information (original probabilities of models andparameters) to be revised as the new data become available. It is shown in this paper how theBayesian procedure can be used successfully with wave data sets from northern North Sea. |
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| Keywords: | Bayes Analysis Design wave heights Uncertainties |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
