| 杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏晓宇,窦金来,陈强,王欣睿.杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用[J].海洋预报,2007,24(3):90-98. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏晓宇 窦金来 陈强 王欣睿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛,266003;国家海洋局珠海海洋环境监测中心站,广东珠海,519015
2. 国家海洋局珠海海洋环境监测中心站,广东珠海,519015 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金资助项目(0560) |
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| 摘 要： | 珠海及粤西海域是风暴潮灾害的多发区,本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式。并利用5年的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,这说明订正后的公式能对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报起到较好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮 杰氏风暴潮预报方法 台风增水峰值 大万山站 闸坡站 硇洲站 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-0239（2007）3-0090-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-14 |
Application of the Jelesnianski storm surge forecast methods in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas |
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| WEI Xiao-yu,DOU Jin-lai,CHEN Qiang,WANG Xin-rui.Application of the Jelesnianski storm surge forecast methods in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas[J].Marine Forecasts,2007,24(3):90-98. |
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| Authors: | WEI Xiao-yu DOU Jin-lai CHEN Qiang WANG Xin-rui |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,266003 China;2.Zhuhai marine environmental monitoring central station of south China sea branch state oceanic administration,Zhuhai,519015 China |
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| Abstract: | Storm surge disaster usually takes place in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas.This paper systematically studys the surge caused by the storms which heavily impacted Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas in history by Jelesnianski forecast methods and make some revision to the original formula by statistical analysis methods.After five years' experiments of the surge forecast in Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas by the revised fomular,the result shows that the forecast accuracy rate is 95.0% and 87.6% respectively.Forecast result indicates the revised formula is basically applicable to Zhuhai and Western Guangdong sea areas. |
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| Keywords: | storm surge Jelesnianski storm surge forecast methods peak surge Wanshan tide station Zhapo tide station Naozhou tide station |
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