Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan |
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| Authors: | Masafumi Kamachi Tsurane Kuragano Satoshi Sugimoto Kumi Yoshita Toshiyuki Sakurai Toshiya Nakano Norihisa Usui Francesco Uboldi |
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| Institution: | (1) Meteorological Research Institute, Nagamine, Tsukuba 305-0052, Japan;(2) Office of Marine Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ohtemachi, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan;(3) LEGOS/BRESM, 14, Av. Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France |
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| Abstract: | The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a
model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial
condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition
from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms
of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation.
The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even
with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information
on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases
are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean
deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the
limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude
in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than
the prediction of the opposite transition.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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| Keywords: | Data assimilation Kuroshio short-range prediction |
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