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| 应用时间序列分析法对太湖叶绿素-a含量的动态研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 龚绍琦,黄家柱,李云梅,黎刚.应用时间序列分析法对太湖叶绿素-a含量的动态研究[J].海洋与湖沼,2008,39(6):591-598. |
| 作者姓名： | 龚绍琦 黄家柱 李云梅 黎刚 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京师范大学地理信息科学江苏省重点实验室,南京,210097;南京信息工程大学遥感学院,南京,210044 2. 南京师范大学地理信息科学江苏省重点实验室,南京,210097 3. 江苏省环境监测中心,南京,210036 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 ， 江苏省高等学校研究生创新计划 |
| 摘 要： | 叶绿素-α是湖泊浮游植物现存量的重要指标，其含量能反映水中浮游植物的丰度和变化规律。研究叶绿素含量的动态变化，可以有效防止、监控湖泊富营养化的发生。以太湖为研究对象，根据其营养水平进行分区，使得不同区域内叶绿素的浓度不同，而同一区域内浓度大体一致，然后利用地理信息系统技术对每个区域内未采样点的叶绿素浓度进行插值，取区域内所有栅格的平均值作为其最终浓度。应用时间序列分析方法对太湖1998-2004年每月的叶绿素含量进行动态模拟，建立各湖区的预测模型。结果表明，中营养区I符合MA（1）模型，轻富营养区Ⅱ和中富营养区Ⅲ符合AR（1）模型，富营养区Ⅳ符合MA（5）模型，重富营养区V符合AR（6）模型。由此预测出2005年各湖区总叶绿素的含量，经前10个月实测数据的验证说明，所建模型在一定程度上能反映太湖各区域叶绿素浓度的变化。 |
| 关 键 词： | 太湖 叶绿素α 地理信息系统 时间序列 模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/12/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/4/15 0:00:00 |
THE TIME SERIES OF CHLOROPHYLL-a CONTENT IN TAIHU LAKE |
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| GONG Shao-Qi,HUANG Jia-Zhu,LI Yun-Mei and LI Gang.THE TIME SERIES OF CHLOROPHYLL-a CONTENT IN TAIHU LAKE[J].Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica,2008,39(6):591-598. | |
| Authors: | GONG Shao-Qi HUANG Jia-Zhu LI Yun-Mei and LI Gang |
| Institution: | Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097; School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & technology, Nanjing, 210044;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097;Jiangsu Province Environmental Monitoring Centre, Nanjing, 210036 |
| Abstract: | Chlorophyll-a concentration is an important index to phytoplankton biomass in lake, showing the abundance and distribution of phytoplankton in lake water, and reflecting the change in lacustrine chlorophyll-a content, which may help indicate the state of eutrophication. Lake water was sampled with chlorophyll-a concentration measured or interpolated lake-wise in grid pattern using GIS (geographic information system) technique. In terms of chlorophyll-a concentration as well as nutrition level, Taihu Lake was divided into five divisions from mesotrophic to hypertrophic state. The historical data of observational chlorophyll-a content were simulated in month from 1998 to 2004 in time series. Processes including data pretreatment, parameterization and presumption test were carried out for simulating raw data for model establishment and validation. For each division, different models are built up capable of simulating chlorophyll-a content in 2005. The results show that these models are able to well-describe the temporal and spatial changes in trophism of the lake. |
| Keywords: | Taihu lake Chlorophyll-a GIS Entriphication Model |
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