Statistical estimation of extreme ocean environments: The requirement for modelling directionality and other covariate effects |
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| Authors: | Philip Jonathan Kevin Ewans George Forristall |
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| Institution: | aShell Technology Centre Thornton, P.O. Box 1, Chester, UK;bShell International Exploration and Production, P.O. Box 60, 2280 AB Rijswijk, The Netherlands;cForristall Ocean Engineering, Camden, ME 04843, USA |
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| Abstract: | With increasing availability of good directional data, provision of directional estimates of extreme significant wave heights, in addition to the omni-directional estimates, is more common. However, interpretation of directional together with omni-directional design criteria is subject to inconsistency, even in design guidelines. In particular, omni-directional criteria are usually estimated ignoring directional effects. In this article, for data which exhibit directional effects, we show that a directional extreme value model generally explains the observed variation significantly better than a model which ignores directionality, and that omni-directional criteria developed from a directional model are different from those generated when directionality is not accounted for. We also show that omni-directional criteria derived from a directional model are more accurate and should be preferred in general over those based on models which ignore directional effects. We recommend use of directional extreme value models for estimation of both directional and omni-directional design criteria in future, when good directional data are available. If effects of other covariates (e.g. time or space) are suspected, we similarly recommend use of extreme value models which adequately capture sources of covariate variability for all design analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Extremes Directional models Design criteria Generalised Pareto |
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