An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections |
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| Institution: | 1. TropWATER, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia;2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shandong, China;3. CIMA Marine and Environmental Research Centre, University of Algarve, Portugal;4. College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia;1. Institute of Multiphase Flows, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany;2. Institute for Inorganic Chemistry, RWTH Aachen University, Germany;1. School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia;2. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195, Australia;3. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia |
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| Abstract: | An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections. |
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