| 条件变化对海口湾风暴增水的影响分析——以海鸥台风为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁瑞,朱良生.条件变化对海口湾风暴增水的影响分析——以海鸥台风为例[J].海洋工程,2018,36(4):147-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁瑞 朱良生 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学土木与交通学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 以海口湾为例,通过建立天文潮与风暴潮耦合数值模型,以典型强台风海鸥为基础,对未来台风增强、海平面上升和填海工程对海口湾风暴潮的影响分别进行了诊断分析,并计算了三者的共同作用在未来100年对风暴增水最大值的变化幅度。结果表明:1)台风强度增强大幅度增加海口湾沿岸风暴增水最大值,台风强度增强10%时,海口湾沿岸控制点风暴增水最大值增加12%~18%;2)海口湾地区在海平面上升的影响下风暴增水最大值反而减小,仅有部分岸段风暴增水值最大增加,不同海域风暴增水变化对海平面上升的响应不同;3)不合理的人工岛建设方案会显著增加对岸风暴最大增水值;4)在台风增强、海平面上升和不合理的海湾填海共同影响下,未来100年风暴增水最大值将增加12%~28%。显然这样的风暴增水变化会引起严重的灾害和后果,本研究可为海口湾防灾减灾工作提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴增水最大值 台风强度增强 海平面上升 海湾填海 |
Impact of condition on storm surge in the Haikou Bay |
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| DING Rui and ZHU Liangsheng.Impact of condition on storm surge in the Haikou Bay[J].Ocean Engineering,2018,36(4):147-154. |
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| Authors: | DING Rui and ZHU Liangsheng |
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| Institution: | School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China and School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China |
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| Abstract: | A coupled numerical model of tide and storm surge was established to study the effect of typhoon intensity increase, sea-level rise and reclamation on the Haikou Bay respectively, and their joint effects on the maximum storm elevation in the Haikou Bay in the next 100 years. The results show that: 1) typhoon intensity increase greatly increases the maximum peak surge elevation, and the closer the typhoon path to the study area, the greater the impact on the maximum peak surge elevation; 2) sea level rise in the Haikou Bay slightly lowers the maximum peak surge elevation compared with the existing condition, and only a small part increases; 3) unreasonable arrangement of artificial islands will significantly increase the maximum peak surge elevation in part of the coast; 4) under the joint influence of typhoon, sea level rise and reclamation, the maximum storm elevation value will increase by 12%~28% in the next 100 years. Obviously, the changes will lead to more serious disasters. This study may provide a basis for disaster prevention and mitigation of the storm surge in the bay. |
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| Keywords: | maximum storm elevation typhoon intensity increase sea level rise bay reclamation |
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