| 基于模糊Petri网络的FPSO单点多管缆干涉风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 余建星,曾庆泽,余杨,陈海成,吴世博,范海昭.基于模糊Petri网络的FPSO单点多管缆干涉风险评估[J].海洋工程,2022,40(1):10-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余建星 曾庆泽 余杨 陈海成 吴世博 范海昭 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;天津大学 天津市港口与海洋工程重点实验室,天津 300350 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC0310502)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779173) |
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| 摘 要： | FPSO单点系泊系统水下管缆众多,受环境等因素影响,管缆容易发生拉伸、扭转、弯曲和碰撞,引发干涉现象,危及工程安全.针对FPSO单点多管缆干涉风险,提出了基于模糊Petri网络的风险评估方法.首先,辨识风险因素来构建风险评估指标体系,并转化为模糊Petri网模型;其次,采用层次分析法确定风险因素的常权重,并引入模糊置信结构来提高专家主观评价的准确性;然后,将变权理论与模糊推理算法相结合来迭代求解库所可信度和状态矩阵;最后,以南海某内转塔式FPSO为例进行了风险评估.结果表明:该FPSO的风险评估等级为中等,环境与设备因素是影响管缆干涉的主要因素.通过风险排序结果对综合评估值较高的风险指标提出了风险控制措施,可有效降低管缆干涉风险发生的概率与危害.
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| 关 键 词： | FPSO单点系泊系统 管缆干涉 模糊Petri网 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/1/13 0:00:00 |
Risk assessment of riser interference of FPSO single point mooring system based on fuzzy Petri net |
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| YU Jianxing,ZENG Qingze,YU Yang,CHEN Haicheng,WU Shibo,FAN Haizhao.Risk assessment of riser interference of FPSO single point mooring system based on fuzzy Petri net[J].Ocean Engineering,2022,40(1):10-20. |
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| Authors: | YU Jianxing ZENG Qingze YU Yang CHEN Haicheng WU Shibo FAN Haizhao |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China |
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| Abstract: | The FPSO single point mooring system has many risers underwater. Affected by the factors such as environment, the risers are prone to stretch, twist, bend and collide, which will cause interference and endanger engineering safety. Considering the risk of riser interference of FPSO single point mooring system, we proposed a risk assessment method based on the fuzzy Petri net. Firstly, the risk evaluation index system was built by identifying the risk factors, and was transformed into a fuzzy Petri net model. Secondly, the AHP was used to determine the constant weight of risk factors, and fuzzy belief structures were used to improve the accuracy of the subjective evaluation of experts. Then, the variable weight theory and the fuzzy reasoning algorithms were combined to iteratively compute the credibility of place and the state matrix. Finally, the risk assessment was carried out with an internal turret FPSO in the South China Sea. The results show that the risk assessment level of the FPSO is medium, and the environment factor and equipment factor are the main factors that affect the riser interference. Based on the risk ranking results, the risk control measures are proposed for the risk indexes with a high comprehensive evaluation value to effectively reduce the probability and harm of the risk of riser interference. |
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| Keywords: | FPSO single point mooring system riser interference fuzzy Petri net risk assessment |
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