| 北极东北航道自然环境风险区划——以俄罗斯北部海域为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王哲,张韧,葛珊珊,巨玉乾,曹朕.北极东北航道自然环境风险区划——以俄罗斯北部海域为例[J].海洋工程,2017,35(5):61-70. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王哲 张韧 葛珊珊 巨玉乾 曹朕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101,国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101,金陵科技学院，江苏 南京 211169,空军95920部队，河北 衡水 253801,空军95809部队，河北 沧州 061000 |
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| 摘 要： | 在全球变暖背景下,针对北极海冰融化和东北航道开通的航行风险问题,采用风险评估理论,利用海冰密度、风速、能见度、气温和高程等指标数据,构建风险指标体系,开展了对北极东北航道主要航段自然环境危险性风险(以下简称综合风险)的评估与区划等工作,讨论各指标因子对综合风险的贡献度,得到如下结果:1)经验上来看,北极东北航道适宜通航的月份为7~10月,从风险量化角度分析得出东北航道7~10月自然环境风险较其它月份低,对经验结论进行了验证。2)研究区综合风险分布为"东高西低",即巴伦支海的综合风险较低,咯拉海、拉普捷夫海和东西伯利亚海风险较高。3)可通航月内(7~10月),9月份综合风险最低,其次是8、7月份,10月份综合风险最高。4)除去个别年份(2008和2009年),研究区在2004~2015年综合风险呈现下降趋势,2015年达到最低值。5)敏感性分析得:海冰对综合风险的贡献度最大;风速、水深次之;气温对综合风险贡献最小。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北航道 风险区划 风险评估 北极航道 北部海域 |
Natural environment risk division of the Arctic northeast channel——Taking the Northern Sea Area of Russia as an example |
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| WANG Zhe,ZHANG Ren,GE Shanshan,JU Yuqian and CAO Zhen.Natural environment risk division of the Arctic northeast channel——Taking the Northern Sea Area of Russia as an example[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,35(5):61-70. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhe ZHANG Ren GE Shanshan JU Yuqian and CAO Zhen |
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| Institution: | Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defence Technology, Nanjing 211101, China,Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defence Technology, Nanjing 211101, China,Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169, China,Air Force 95920 Troops, Hengshui 253801, China and Air Force 95809 Troops, Cangzhou 061000, China |
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| Abstract: | Under the conditions of global warming, the problem of navigating in the Arctic sea ice area and the northeast channel is studied. Based on the theory of risk assessment, using sea ice density, wind speed, visibility, temperature and elevation and other data, a risk index system is built. The assessment and zoning of the natural environmental risk (hereinafter referred to as the comprehensive risk) of the main section of the Arctic northeast channel are carried out and the contribution of each index factor to the comprehensive risk is discussed. The study results show that: 1) According to the past experience, the Arctic northeast channel is suitable for navigation from July to October. This paper analyzes the natural environment risk of the northeast channel from the point of view of risk quantification, and verifies the empirical conclusion. 2) The comprehensive risk distribution in the study area is "high in the east and low in the west", that is, the combined risk of the Barents Sea is lower, and the risk of the Grada, Laplch and East Siberia is higher. 3) In the navigable months (July-October), the lowest overall risk is in September, followed by August and July, and the highest comprehensive risk in October. 4) Excluding individual years (2008 and 2009), the combined risk of the study area in 2004~2015 showed a downward trend and reached its lowest level in 2015. 5) Sensitivity analysis: sea ice has the greatest contribution to the comprehensive risk; wind speed and water depth are the second; temperature contributes the least to comprehensive risk. |
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| Keywords: | northeast channel risk division risk assessment |
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