| 江苏及邻近海域深水波浪与增水联合概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢冬梅,陈永平,张长宽,李江夏.江苏及邻近海域深水波浪与增水联合概率分析[J].海洋工程,2014,32(4):64-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢冬梅 陈永平 张长宽 李江夏 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题(2010CB429001);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201045) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用Gumbel Logistic模型对江苏及邻近海域深水极值波浪与增水进行了联合概率分析。首先对联合概率模型参数进行拟合,得到联合超越概率与经验联合超越概率比较图。在此基础上开展有效波高和增水年极值序列联合概率分析,比较了三种经验有效波高与增水重现期组合事件的联合概率,结果表明在选定的13个代表点位处,有效波高在二者的联合概率分布中处于主导地位,采用100年一遇有效波高与10年一遇增水组合事件作为100年一遇联合事件偏保守;而50年一遇有效波高与50年一遇增水以及10年一遇有效波高与100年一遇增水组合事件的联合概率则随着点位的移动而高于或低于100年一遇的水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 江苏及邻近海域 深水波浪 增水 Gumbel Logistic模型 联合概率 |
Joint probability analysis of extreme waves and surges in Jiangsu and nearby offshore area |
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| XIE Dong-mei,CHEN Yong-ping,ZHANG Chang-kuan and LI Jiang-xia.Joint probability analysis of extreme waves and surges in Jiangsu and nearby offshore area[J].Ocean Engineering,2014,32(4):64-71. |
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| Authors: | XIE Dong-mei CHEN Yong-ping ZHANG Chang-kuan and LI Jiang-xia |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | The Gumbel Logistic model was adopted for the joint probability analysis of extreme waves and surges at 13 selected points in Jiangsu and nearby offshore area. The parameter indicating the correlation between wave and surge was first obtained and the theoretical and empirical exceedance probabilities were compared. The established joint probability distribution was applied to analyze the three commonly used combination events of waves and surges. The results show that the combination of 100-year return period significant wave height and 10-year return period surge level is larger than that of 100-year joint event, and the combinations of 50-year return period significant wave height and 50-year return period surge level and 10-year return period significant wave height and 100-year return period surge level can be larger or smaller than that of 100-year joint event at the selected points. |
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| Keywords: | Jiangsu and nearby offshore sea deepwater waves surge Gumbel Logistic model joint probability |
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