| 欧洲北海海域波高区间分布概率研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 童 波,张九鸣,邹 丽,赵 建,孙铁志.欧洲北海海域波高区间分布概率研究[J].海洋工程,2019,37(3):51-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 童 波 张九鸣 邹 丽 赵 建 孙铁志 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国船舶工业集团公司第七〇八研究所;大连理工大学船舶工程学院;高技术船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51522902,51579040);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(DUT17ZD233) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究欧洲北海海域的波高全区域概率分布情况,从而为海洋平台等海洋浮式结构物的选址和结构设计提供依据。首先基于Global Waves Statistics(GWS)提供的实测数据,确定典型计算工况的发生概率;同时考虑实测数据中极端波浪环境下的数据缺失导致大波高分布概率偏小的问题,利用三参数Weibull分布确定不同重现期下的极值风速,作为典型计算工况的补充。以不同风速、风向的定常风场为输入项,利用第三代海浪数值模型SWAN模型,对北海全区域波高进行数值模拟。将数值模拟的稳态形式依照各工况的发生概率进行归一化累加处理,认为其结果可以表征全区域的波高概率分布情况。以波高概率分布的计算结果为依据,分析北海海域波浪环境的统计学特征,发现有效波高为7 m以上的大波高频发区在北海北部区域有大范围分布;有效波高4～5 m为北海东北区域的多发海况,极端海况下的有效波高主要分布于7～14 m区间,在地形突变区域的波高发生显著变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 欧洲北海 波高概率分布 SWAN模型 极值风速 Weibull分布 |
Study on the probability distribution of wave-height ranges of North Sea in Europe |
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| TONG Bo,ZHANG Jiuming,ZOU Li,ZHAO Jian and SUN Tiezhi.Study on the probability distribution of wave-height ranges of North Sea in Europe[J].Ocean Engineering,2019,37(3):51-60. |
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| Authors: | TONG Bo ZHANG Jiuming ZOU Li ZHAO Jian and SUN Tiezhi |
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| Institution: | Marine Design and Research Institute of China, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, Shanghai 200023, China;,School of Naval Architecture, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;,School of Naval Architecture, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;
Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration, Shanghai 200240, China,School of Naval Architecture, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China; and School of Naval Architecture, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China; |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the probability distribution of the wave height in the North Sea area of Europe and provide a basis for the site selection and structural design of marine floating structures such as offshore platforms, the occurrence probability of typical working conditions has been determined firstly and the problem that the loss of actually measured data in the extreme wave environment leads to a small distribution probability of large wave heights has been considered based on the measured data provided by GWS (Global Waves Statistics). The extreme wind speed of various recurrence periods is obtained by using the three-parameter Weibull distribution as the supplement of typical conditions. And the third-generation wave numerical model SWAN model is used to perform the numerical simulation of the wave height over the entire North Sea region under various wind speeds and directions. The steady state results of the numerical simulation are normalized according to the probability of occurrence of calculation conditions and the results can represent the probability distribution of wave height in the whole region. The calculation of the probability distribution of the wave height and the analysis of the wave environment in the North Sea area through statistics show that the frequent zone of large wave height where significant wave height is above 7 m is widely distributed in the north area, and the significant wave height which is in the range of 4-5 m is in the northeast area of the North Sea. The wave heights in the extreme sea conditions are mainly in the range of 7-14 m and the wave heights change significantly in the topographically abrupt regions. |
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| Keywords: | North Sea wave height probability distribution SWAN model extreme wind speed Weibull distribution |
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