Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas |
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| Authors: | WANG Guansuo ZHAO Chang XU Jiangling QIAO Fangli and XIA Changshui |
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| Institution: | College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM), State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China,The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM), State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China,North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266033, China,The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM), State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China and The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM), State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| Abstract: | An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas (OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to (1/24)° from the global model with (1/2)° resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature (SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores (SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value (more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean. |
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| Keywords: | operational forecast sea surface temperature mixed layer depth lead time subsurface temperature ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecast system China's seas |
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