| FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵一丁,尹训强,宋亚娟,乔方利.FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估[J].海洋学报(英文版),2019,38(1):5-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵一丁 尹训强 宋亚娟 乔方利 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学海洋与大气科学学院, 青岛, 266100;国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061;海洋科学与技术国家实验室, 区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛, 266071;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室, 青岛, 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061;海洋科学与技术国家实验室, 区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛, 266071;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室, 青岛, 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061;海洋科学与技术国家实验室, 区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛, 266071;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室, 青岛, 266061 |
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| 基金项目： | The National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1606405; the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract Nos GASI-IPOVAI-05 and GASI-IPOVAI-06; the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology, China under contract No. 2016YFE0101400... |
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| 摘 要： | The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
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| 关 键 词： | 季节性预测 北太平洋 海表温度 降水 FIO-ESM气候模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/9/10 0:00:00 |
Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation |
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| ZHAO Yiding,YIN Xunqiang,SONG Yajuan and QIAO Fangli.Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2019,38(1):5-12. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yiding YIN Xunqiang SONG Yajuan and QIAO Fangli |
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| Abstract: | The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study. The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993-2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for mid-latitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions. The average skill of the North Pacific variability (NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72 (0.55) when El Niño-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase (out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6% (23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction. |
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| Keywords: | seasonal prediction North Pacific sea surface temperature precipitation FIO-ESM climate model |
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