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WRF模式空间分辨率对南海台风模拟的敏感性分析
引用本文:伍志元,蒋昌波,邓斌,陈杰,刘晓建.WRF模式空间分辨率对南海台风模拟的敏感性分析[J].海洋学报(英文版),2019,38(7):74-83.
作者姓名:伍志元  蒋昌波  邓斌  陈杰  刘晓建
作者单位:长沙理工大学水利工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410114;水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室, 湖南 长沙 410114;美国麻省大学海洋科学与技术学院, 马萨诸塞州 新贝德福德 02744;水利部珠江河口动力学及伴生过程调控重点实验室, 广东 广州 510611,长沙理工大学水利工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410114;水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室, 湖南 长沙 410114,长沙理工大学水利工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410114;水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室, 湖南 长沙 410114,长沙理工大学水利工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410114;水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室, 湖南 长沙 410114,水利部珠江河口动力学及伴生过程调控重点实验室, 广东 广州 510611
基金项目:The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 51809023, 51839002 and 51879015; the Open Research Foundation of the Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation, the Ministry of Water Resources under contract No. 2018KJ03.
摘    要:为准确模拟南中国海台风路径和强度,对建立的WRF模式开展水平和垂向网格分辨率的敏感性分析。水平网格分辨率分别采用5 km,10 km,20 km,30 km以及15 km和5 km的嵌套方案等5种情况,垂向网格分辨率采用35层、28层和20层等3种情况,顶部最大压强采用1000 Pa,2000 Pa,3500 Pa和5000 Pa等4种情况,针对台风"启德"的路径和强度进行模拟分析。对不同条件组合下的台风路径、风速和海面压强进行对比,发现水平和垂向网格分辨率对台风路径的影响比较有限,对台风强度的影响相对显著。基于高精度空间分辨率模拟得到的台风强度与实测值吻合更好,采用嵌套网格技术对计算结果精度的提高效果显著。采用35层的垂向分辨率得到的模拟结果明显优于基于20层和28层得到的模拟结果。经过对比分析,确定适用于本研究的最优参数设置:水平空间分辨率采用15 km和5 km的双向嵌套网格方案;垂向分层为35层,顶部最大压强为2000 Pa。

关 键 词:敏感性分析  台风路径和强度  水平和垂向分辨率  台风“启德”  WRF模式
收稿时间:2019/1/26 0:00:00

Sensitivity of WRF simulated typhoon track and intensity over the South China Sea to horizontal and vertical resolutions
Wu Zhiyuan,Jiang Changbo,Deng Bin,Chen Jie and Liu Xiaojian.Sensitivity of WRF simulated typhoon track and intensity over the South China Sea to horizontal and vertical resolutions[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2019,38(7):74-83.
Authors:Wu Zhiyuan  Jiang Changbo  Deng Bin  Chen Jie and Liu Xiaojian
Abstract:To determine the grid resolutions of the WRF model in the typhoon simulation, some sensitivity analysis of horizontal and vertical resolutions in different conditions has been carried out. Different horizontal resolutions(5,10, 20, 30 km), nesting grids(15 and 5 km), different vertical resolutions(35-layers, 28-layers, 20-layers) and different top maximum pressures(1 000, 2 000, 3 500, 5 000 Pa) had been used in the mesoscale numerical model WRF to simulate the Typhoon Kai-tak. The simulation results of typhoon track, wind speed and sea level pressure at different horizontal and vertical resolutions have been compared and analyzed. The horizontal and vertical resolutions of the model have limited effect on the simulation effect of the typhoon track. Different horizontal and vertical resolutions have obvious effects on typhoon strength(defined by wind speed) and intensity(defined by sea level pressure, SLP), especially for sea level pressure. The typhoon intensity simulated by the high-resolution model is closer to the real situation and the nesting grids can improve computational accuracy and efficiency. The simulation results affected by vertical resolution using 35-layers is better than the simulation results using 20-layers and 28-layers simulations. Through comparison and analysis, the horizontal and vertical resolutions of WRF model are finally determined as follows: the two-way nesting grid of 15 and 5 km is comprehensively determined, and the vertical layers is 35-layers, the top maximum pressure is 2 000 Pa.
Keywords:sensitivity analysis  typhoon track and intensity  horizontal and vertical resolutions  Typhoon Kai-tak  WRF
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