| 超强厄尔尼诺事件次年台风生成偏晚原因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李志强,张润宇,刘凯,郑昌玲,陈志昆.超强厄尔尼诺事件次年台风生成偏晚原因分析[J].海洋学报(英文版),2019,38(7):67-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李志强 张润宇 刘凯 郑昌玲 陈志昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081, 中国;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China,国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081, 中国,国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081, 中国,国家气象中心, 北京, 100081, 中国,国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081, 中国 |
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| 基金项目： | The National Key Research and Development Program for Developing Basic Sciences under contract No. 2016YFC1401601; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41576026. |
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| 摘 要： | The 2015/2016 El Ni?o event reached the threshold of super El Ni?o event, and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. Interestingly, the tropical cyclones(TCs) were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events. This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation, disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms. The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) from January–June during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events were stronger than the climatic mean, which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection. As a disturbance source, the April–June intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean. The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough, as important TC generation triggers, were weaker from April–June during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events, which further reduced the probability of TC generation. As for the late TC onsets, the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies(i.e., subtropical-high, the ITCZ, cross-equatorial flow, and monsoon trough) were more important. The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events.
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| 关 键 词： | 超强厄尔尼诺事件次年 台风生成条件 扰动源 触发机制 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/9/11 0:00:00 |
Late onsets of tropical cyclones in the decaying years of super El Niño events |
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| LI Zhiqiang,ZHANG Runyu,LIU Kai,ZHENG Changling and CHEN Zhikun.Late onsets of tropical cyclones in the decaying years of super El Niño events[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2019,38(7):67-73. |
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| Authors: | LI Zhiqiang ZHANG Runyu LIU Kai ZHENG Changling and CHEN Zhikun |
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| Institution: | 1.National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China2.National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China3.National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The 2015/2016 El Niño event reached the threshold of super El Niño event, and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. Interestingly, the tropical cyclones (TCs) were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Niño events. This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation, disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms. The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) from January-June during the decaying years of the super El Niño events were stronger than the climatic mean, which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection. As a disturbance source, the April-June intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the decaying years of the super El Niño events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean. The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough, as important TC generation triggers, were weaker from April-June during the decaying years of the super El Niño events, which further reduced the probability of TC generation. As for the late TC onsets, the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies (i.e., subtropical-high, the ITCZ, cross-equatorial flow, and monsoon trough) were more important. The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Niño events. |
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| Keywords: | super El Niño event TC generation disturbance source trigger mechanism |
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