| Numerical prediction experiment on Typhoon Maggie (9903) |
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| 作者姓名： | Fong Soi Kun Wu Chisheng Hao I Pan Lam Kin Hang Ku Chi Meng Wang Anyu Lin Wenshi |
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| 作者单位： | 1. Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau，Macao，China 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences，Zhongshan University，Guangzhou 510275，China |
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| 摘 要： | I~IOXTyphoon is a severe and diSaStrous weather phenomenon that affeCts the southeaSt COaStsregion of China. It causes Serious lOSS for the social eCOnondc development as well as the life andproperties Of PeOPle. Therefore, the enhancement to study on the artifice of monitoring, Prediction and public services of typhoon is an i~nent requirement for gove~t and Public.The concern is also a taSk of great Urgency to advanCe meteorolQgical sciences.Starting from the 1980' s, as the deve…
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| 关 键 词： | Typhoon movement numerical prediction South China coastal line |
| 收稿时间： | 2000/12/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2/8/2001 12:00:00 AM |
Numerical prediction experiment on Typhoon Maggie (9903) |
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| Fong Soi Kun,Wu Chisheng,Hao I Pan,Lam Kin Hang,Ku Chi Meng,Wang Anyu,Lin Wenshi.Numerical prediction experiment on Typhoon Maggie (9903)[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2001,20(2):171-181. |
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| Authors: | Fong Soi Kun Wu Chisheng Hao I Pan Lam Kin Hang Ku Chi Meng Wang Anyu and Lin Wenshi |
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| Institution: | 1.Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China2.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China3.Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China |
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| Abstract: | The movement of Typhoon Maggie (9903) in June 1999 is one of the rare cases ever seen in the history. At 00U on June 6 Maggie was located at about 70 km to the southwest of Taiwan. When it arrived at the coastal region of Shanwei City (22.8N, 116.5E), it turned suddenly to move southwestward along the southern China coastal line. De June 7 Maggie finally turned to move northward, making landfall to the north of Shangchuan Island. The experimental numerical prediction system on typhoon movement that was designed based on MM5 is proved quite successful for the 48h prediction of Maggie's movement and rainfall. The mean prediction error of typhoon track is 81 km for 0-24 h and 74 km for 24-48 h. The location of typhoon center in the initial field of the model is approximately 100 km away from the actual observations. In order to modify the location of typhoon center, a bogus typhoon was intro- duced into the model and the prediction of typhoon track was improved in 0-24 h time interval. But the prediction error was enlarged in 24-36 h. We also performed a sensitivity experiment of changing the land of southern China into the ocean. It is found that the orientation of South China coastal line and the topography have no obvious effect on the movement of Typhoon Maggie. |
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| Keywords: | Typhoon movement numerical prediction South China coastal line |
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