| Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities: New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina |
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| 作者姓名： | LIU Defu SHI Hong PANG Liang |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China [2]College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China |
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| 基金项目： | This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 50379051. |
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| 摘 要： | The accurate prediction of the typhoon （hurricane） induced extreme sea environments is very important for the coastal structure design in areas influenced by typhoon （hurricane）. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina brought a severe catastrophe in New Orleans by combined effects of hurricane induced extreme sea environments and upper flood of the Mississippi River. Like the New Orleans City, Shanghai is located at the estuarine area of the Changjiang River and the combined effect of typhoon induced extreme sea en- vironments, flood peak runoff from the Changjiang River coupled with the spring tide is the dominate factor for disaster prevention design criteria. The Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution （PNLTCEYD） is a new type of joint probability model which is proposed by compounding a discrete distribution （typhoon occurring frequency） into a continuous multivariate joint distribution （ typhoon induced extreme events）. The new model gives more reasonable predicted results for New Orleans and Shanghai disaster prevention design criteria.
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 飓风 上海 自然灾害 热带气象 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-17 |
Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities: New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina |
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| LIU Defu,SHI Hong,PANG Liang.Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities: New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2006,25(4):131-142. |
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| Authors: | LIU Defu SHI Hongda and PANG Liang |
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| Institution: | 1.Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China2.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China |
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| Abstract: | The accurate prediction of the typhoon (hurricane) induced extreme sea environments is very important for the coastal structure design in areas influenced by typhoon (hurricane). In 2005 Hurricane Katrina brought a severe catastrophe in New Orleans by combined effects of hurricane induced extreme sea environments and upper flood of the Mississippi River. Like the New Orleans City, Shanghai is located at the estuarine area of the Changjiang River and the combined effect of typhoon induced extreme sea environments, flood peak runoff from the Changjiang River coupled with the spring tide is the dominate factor for disaster prevention design criteria. The Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution (PNLTCEVD) is a new type of joint probability model which is proposed by compounding a discrete distribution (typhoon occurring frequency) into a continuous multivariate joint distribution (typhoon induced extreme events). The new model gives more reasonable predicted results for New Orleans and Shanghai disaster prevention design criteria. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon hurricane compound extreme value distribution disaster prevention design criteria |
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