| 极值波高建模中不确定性的模糊量化方法 |
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| 作者姓名： | ZHANG Yi CAO Yingyi |
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| 作者单位： | Division of Infrastructure Systems and Maritime Studies, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore,College of Preschool Education, Zibo Normal College, Zibo 255130, China |
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| 摘 要： | A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated.
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| 关 键 词： | offshore engineering extreme value distribution wave height peak over threshold fuzzy set Pareto distribution |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/2/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/10/21 0:00:00 |
A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling |
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| ZHANG Yi,CAO Yingyi.A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(3):90-98. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yi and CAO Yingyi |
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| Institution: | 1.Division of Infrastructure Systems and Maritime Studies, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore2.College of Preschool Education, Zibo Normal College, Zibo 255130, China |
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| Abstract: | A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated. |
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| Keywords: | offshore engineering extreme value distribution wave height peak over threshold fuzzy set Pareto distribution |
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