| 基于CMIP5模式的南海海平面未来变化预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄传江,乔方利.基于CMIP5模式的南海海平面未来变化预估[J].海洋学报(英文版),2015,34(3):31-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄传江 乔方利 |
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| 作者单位： | Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China,Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| 基金项目： | The National Basic Research Program (973 Program) of China under contract No.2010CB950501，the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41276035，the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Province Joint Fund of Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1406404 |
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| 摘 要： | Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea(SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21 st century(2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level(DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise(SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21 st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level(SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21 st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.
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| 关 键 词： | sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/5/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/10/10 0:00:00 |
Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models |
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| HUANG Chuanjiang and QIAO Fangli.Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(3):31-41. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Chuanjiang and QIAO Fangli |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| Abstract: | Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea (SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level (DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise (SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level (SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves. |
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| Keywords: | sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models |
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