Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters |
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| Authors: | Baoxing Wang Dominic Reeve |
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| Institution: | Centre for Coastal Dynamics and Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Plymouth, PL4 8AA, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified. |
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| Keywords: | Breakwaters Currents Shoreline change Probabilistic modelling Monte Carlo simulation |
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