The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK) |
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| Authors: | Nicolas Chini Peter Stansby James Leake Judith Wolf Jonah Roberts-Jones Jason Lowe |
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| Institution: | 1. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK;2. School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Sackville Street, PO Box 88, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK;3. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK;4. Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK |
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| Abstract: | In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions. |
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