| 气候变化和污染源对中国华北地区臭氧的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张天奇,高阳.气候变化和污染源对中国华北地区臭氧的影响[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2021(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张天奇 高阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研究发展计划项目(2017YFC0209801);国家自然科学基金项目(41705124)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国近年来空气污染严重,尤其是臭氧污染问题日益突出,因此,探讨全球变暖下未来气候变化和污染源等综合作用如何影响中国臭氧污染,对中国未来污染控制具有重要意义。本研究主要利用Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project(ACCMIP)中GFDL和UMCAM模式评估气候和污染源变化对中国华北地区未来臭氧的影响,其中2001—2010年代为历史时段(Hist),其臭氧模拟浓度代表基准情况下气候和污染源排放的影响,未来情景包括中等排放强度情景(RCP4.5)和高排放强度情景(RCP8.5)。相对于Hist,RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景,本世纪末(2100)的华北地区臭氧显著降低,其主要原因在于人为源挥发性有机物和氮氧化物的降低所致。同时,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5两个情景中,华北地区2100年代夏季臭氧浓度低于春季,这意味着夏季浓度降低幅度更大,这主要在于臭氧前体物的减少对于光化学活跃在夏季的影响大于其它季节。如果保持污染源不变,仅考虑气候变化的影响,本研究通过对臭氧超标天数、频率和污染事件持续时间的分析,发现气候变化可进一步加剧华北地区未来臭氧超标天数,并且这种影响具有明显的空间差异性。对于ACCMIP全球模式空间分辨率不足问题,在未来的研究中,应结合区域模式来解析气候变化对臭氧影响的空间特征方面来加强研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 臭氧 气候变化 污染源 ACCMIP RCP 8.5 |
The Impact of Climate Change and Emissions on Ozone in North China |
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| ZHANG Tian-Qi,GAO Yang.The Impact of Climate Change and Emissions on Ozone in North China[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2021(3). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Tian-Qi GAO Yang |
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| Institution: | (Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China) |
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| Abstract: | In recent years,air pollution has become a serious problem in China,especially ozone pollution.Therefore,it is important to explore how the combined effects of climate change and pollution sources may affect the ozone pollution in China under global warming.In this study,GFDL and UMCAM models in Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project(ACCMIP)are used to investigate how climate and emission changes modulate future ozone in North China.Compared with Hist,the ozone concentration over North China is significantly reduced by the end of the 21st century,mainly attributed to the decrease of anthropogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides.Meanwhile,the ozone concentration in summer over these two scenarios over North China is even lower than that in spring,indicating a substantially larger reduction in summer,a result of more weakened effect during the photochemical active season of summer in comparison to other seasons.Maintaining the emission unchanged,through the analysis of three statistical metrics of ozone standard exceedance including the annual number of exceedance days,frequencyand duration,this study reveals that the climate change only may further enhance the ozone pollution through the increase of ozone standard exceedance days,and the effect show large spatial heterogeneity.Considering the coarse spatial resolution,it is implicative that more research on this aspect needs to be carried out,in particular of the utilization of regional models in elucidating the spatial characteristics of future ozone pollution. |
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| Keywords: | ozone climate change emission ACCMIP RCP 8 5 |
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