| 基于产卵场海表温度的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王易帆,陈新军,郭立新.基于产卵场海表温度的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型研究[J].海洋学报,2020,42(6):29-35. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王易帆 陈新军 郭立新 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院，上海 201306 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目（NSFC41876141）。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)为短生命周期种，其资源丰度易受海洋环境变化的影响，尤其是在产卵场的早期生活史阶段。根据2003?2016年我国鱿钓船队在西南大西洋的生产统计数据，以及产卵场海洋表面温度(SST)卫星遥感数据，用相关性分析方法筛选出阿根廷滑柔鱼产卵旺季期间(6月份)表征产卵场SST变化的特征海域；基于阿根廷滑柔鱼产卵场最适SST范围占总面积之比(Ps)与资源丰度单位捕捞努力渔获量(CPUE，t/船)呈正相关性的假设，回溯阿根廷滑柔鱼最适的产卵场及水温环境条件，并据此建立多种基于表征产卵场SST环境因子的资源丰度多元线性预测模型。相关性分析结果表明:6月份有两片连续海域(Area 1、Area 2)的SST与CPUE之间存在显著相关性，分别为42.5°～44°S、57.5°～59°W(Area 1)和39°～39.5°S、45°～46°W(Area 2)；回溯的阿根廷滑柔鱼产卵场范围为37.5°～44°S、41.5°～51.5°W，产卵场最适SST范围为16～17.5℃。利用2个特征海域(Area 1、Area 2)SST以及回溯的产卵场Ps建立4种的多元线性资源丰度指数(ICPUE)预测模型，结果表明，包含表征寒暖流的特征海域和回溯产卵场Ps的方案4模型优于其他3种模型，其资源丰度指数预测模型为ICPUE=1.390 4×Ps+0.261 9×SSTArea 1+0.096 2×SSTArea 2?3.248 0。
|
| 关 键 词： | 西南大西洋 阿根廷滑柔鱼 资源丰度 预测模型 产卵环境条件 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/12/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/1/2 0:00:00 |
Research on the abundance prediction model of Illex argentinus based on sea surface temperature of spawning ground |
| |
| Wang Yifan,Chen Xinjun,Guo Lixin.Research on the abundance prediction model of Illex argentinus based on sea surface temperature of spawning ground[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2020,42(6):29-35. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Yifan Chen Xinjun Guo Lixin |
| |
| Institution: | College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China; College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Illex argentinus was a short life cycle species. Its resource abundance is susceptible to changes in the marine environment, especially in its early life history stage. According to the production statistics of the Chinese squid jigging fleet during 2003?2016 in the Southwest Atlantic and the sea surface temperature (SST) of the spawning ground from satellite remote sensing, the correlation analysis method was used to select the featured area representing SST changes during the spawning season (June) of I. argentinus. Based on the assumption that the ratio of optimum SST range to the total area (Ps) of the spawning ground of I. argentinus is positively correlated with the abundance index (catch per fishing unit, CPUE, t/ship), the optimum spawning area and suitable sea water temperature range of I. argentinus were traced back, and a variety of multivariate linear prediction models of abundance index based on the environmental factors were established. The correlation analysis shows that there are significant correlations between SST and CPUE in two consecutive sea areas (Area 1, Area 2) in June. They are 42.5°?44°S, 57.5°?59°W (Area 1) and 39°?39.5°S, 45°?46°W (Area 2) respectively. The inferred spawning area of I. argentinus ranges from 37.5°S to 44°S and 41.5°W to 51.5°W, and the optimum SST in the spawning area is 16°C to 17.5°C. The SSTs of two featured areas (Area 1, Area 2) and Ps in the inferred spawning area are used to establish four types of multivariate linear prediction models of abundance index (ICPUE), the results show that the fourth model containing the featured areas and Ps in the inferred spawning area is superior to the other 3 models, and its prediction model of abundance index is ICPUE=1.390 4×Ps+0.261 9×SSTArea 1+0.096 2×SSTArea 2?3.248 0. |
| |
| Keywords: | Southwest Atlantic Illex argentinus abundance index forecasting model spawning environmental conditions |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
