| 沿海地区风暴潮灾害的脆弱性组合评价及原因探析 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁顺,赵昕,李琳琳.沿海地区风暴潮灾害的脆弱性组合评价及原因探析[J].海洋学报,2016,38(2):16-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁顺 赵昕 李琳琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国海洋大学 海洋与大气学院, 山东 青岛 266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71373247);海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305020);国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDB171);中国海洋发展研究会青年项目(CAMAQN201413);山东省优秀中青年科学家奖励基金项目(BS2015HZ006);中国博士后基金项目(2015M572077)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 以典型海洋灾害风暴潮为研究对象,以国家海洋局统计公报数据、国家统计局和各省市统计数据为数据源,将粗糙集理论(RST)与组合赋权策略(CWM)结合建立了基于RST-CWM的风暴潮灾害脆弱性组合评价模型。利用粗糙集的知识简约属性、投影寻踪组合赋权思想进行沿海各省市地区海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性的综合评价。测算结果表明:沿海地区基于RST-CWM模型的风暴潮灾害脆弱性呈现出一定的空间差异性,但研究区各省市海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性与地理位置分布没有必然的联系,说明在沿海地区开展海洋防灾减灾工作,若只注重地理区划并不一定能改善当地风暴潮脆弱程度。研究区各省市海洋灾害脆弱程度大小排序为:山东、天津、福建、广东、广西、辽宁、江苏、浙江、海南、河北、上海,同时,各省市的脆弱性要素即暴露性、敏感性及适应性构成有所差异,说明完备海洋风暴潮防灾减灾机制的驱动力是多样的,风暴潮防治应综合考虑灾害本身和人为因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮灾害 脆弱性 组合评价 粗糙集理论 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/3/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/9/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Combination evaluation and case analysis of vulnerability of storm surge in coastal provinces of China |
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| Yuan Shun,Zhao Xin and Li Linlin.Combination evaluation and case analysis of vulnerability of storm surge in coastal provinces of China[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2016,38(2):16-24. |
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| Authors: | Yuan Shun Zhao Xin and Li Linlin |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China2.College of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper researched the storm surge disasters in coastal provinces of China. Based on the data sources including the State Oceanic Administration, statistical yearbooks of State Statistical Bureau and coastal provinces, the Rough Set Theory and the Combination Weighting Method were combined to build the RST-CWM model for the purpose of assessing the vulnerability of storm surge disasters. And the evaluation results show that the vulnerability of storm surge disasters in coastal provinces varied spatially. However, this variation did not show a significant connection with geographical location. In this case, only focusing on geographical location in policy-making was likely to be inefficient. The most vulnerable area was Shandong while the least was Shanghai. Furthermore, the vulnerability of storm surge disasters was discomposed into exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which varied from provinces. It indicated that diverse driving forces should be employed to optimize marine disaster prevention and reduction policies, during which natural and human factors should be taken into account. |
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| Keywords: | storm surge disasters vulnerability combination evaluation model rough set theory |
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