| 中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性及其气候特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性及其气候特征研究[J].海洋学报,2019,41(7):36-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 齐庆华 蔡榕硕 |
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| 作者单位： | 自然资源部第三海洋研究所 海洋环境管理与可持续发展研究中心，福建 厦门 361005 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项（2017YFA0604901）；福建省自然科学基金面上项目（2017J01076）；中国清洁发展机制基金项目（2014112）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于1982–2017年日再分析数据，分析了中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性、历史演变、空间格局及可能影响，并探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。近30多年来，中国近海海表总体升温明显，尤以春季长江口附近及以南的外部近岸海域升温最为显著，线性升温速率高达0.2°C/(10 a)。相比而言，沿岸海域对气候变暖暂缓的响应可能更为明显；极端高(低)温强度以显著增强(减弱)为主，尤以春(夏)季幅度最大。沿岸海域春季极值温差增强显著，易通过物候变化引起生物迁移和赤潮等生态灾害突发、频发；北部海域极端事件持续天数大于南部，其中，黄海、东海极端高温持续天数增加显著，可能对渔业资源产生较大影响。受气候变暖暂缓影响，极端低温持续天数亦显著增加；极端高温在长江口附近，台湾海峡和南海北部等海域累积频次上升显著，未来极端海洋热浪事件可能持续增加，将对南海珊瑚礁等产生较大影响。极端低温累积频次以显著降低为主。然而长江口及以南沿岸极端低温在冬春季增强明显，可能对红树林等产生一定影响；太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相期间，ENSO暖事件得到增强，易引起中国近海海表极端低温的频发。北极涛动(AO)正位相时，限制了极区冷空气向南扩展，中国近海海表极端高温频次趋于增加，其危险性增强。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端气候事件 海洋热浪 海洋生态系统 孕灾环境 区域气候变率 全球气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/7/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/10/27 0:00:00 |
Analysis on climate characteristics of sea surface temperature extremes in coastal China seas |
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| Qi Qinghua and Cai Rongshuo.Analysis on climate characteristics of sea surface temperature extremes in coastal China seas[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2019,41(7):36-51. |
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| Authors: | Qi Qinghua and Cai Rongshuo |
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| Institution: | Marine Environmental Management and Sustainable Development Research Center, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily reanalysis from 1982 to 2017, this paper focuses on the analysis of the extreme characteristics, historical evolution, spatial pattern and possible impactions of sea surface temperature (SST) in coastal China seas (CCS), and discusses the correlation with global change and regional climate variability. The SST in the CCS overall increased significantly in recent more than 30 years, especially in the spring near the Changjiang River Estuary and offshore areas south of it with the warming rate up to 0.2℃/(10 a). Nevertheless the response of nearshore waters to the global warming hiatus is likely to be more pronounced. The extreme high (low) temperature intensity is mainly enhanced (weakened), especially in spring (summer). The increase of extreme temperature difference in the nearshore area in spring can easily lead to frequent ecological disasters such as biological migration and red tide. The consecutive days of extreme events in the northern sea areas are longer than in the south. The consecutive days of extreme high temperature in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea increased significantly, which may have a potential impact on fishery resources. Mostly due to the global warming hiatus, the consecutive days of extreme low temperature is also increased significantly. The cumulative frequency of extreme high temperature near the Changjiang River Estuary, the Taiwan Strait and the northern part of the South China Sea (SCS) increased significantly. In the future, extreme marine heat waves are likely increase continuously, which will have a greater impact on the coral reefs in the SCS and so on. The cumulative frequency of extreme low temperature is mainly reduced. The extreme low temperature along the Changjiang River Estuary and the southern nearshore sea areas increased obviously in winter and spring, which may have some influence on mangrove. During the warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the ENSO warm event is enhanced, which is likely to cause the frequent occurrence of extreme low temperature in the CCS. In addition, as the Arctic oscillation (AO) is in positive phase, the cold air in the polar region is restricted to expand southward, and the frequency of extreme high temperature in the CCS surface tends to increase, which enhances the disaster risk. |
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| Keywords: | extreme climate events marine heat wave marine ecosystem hazard inducing environment regional climate variability global climate change |
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