| IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈长霖,左军成,杜凌,何倩倩.IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化[J].海洋学报,2012,34(1):29-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈长霖 左军成 杜凌 何倩倩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家海洋局 第二海洋研究所, 卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 浙江 杭州 310012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大科学研究计划课题(2012CB955601);国家自然科学基金项目(40976006);国家海洋局第二海洋研究所基本科研业务专项(JG1102)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.004 8 mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700 m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 海平面上升 CCSM3 IPCCSRESA2情景 比容 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/8/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/8/14 0:00:00 |
Long term trends in global sea level under IPCC SRES A2 scenario |
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| CHEN Changlin,ZUO Juncheng,DU Ling and HE Qianqian.Long term trends in global sea level under IPCC SRES A2 scenario[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2012,34(1):29-38. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Changlin ZUO Juncheng DU Ling and HE Qianqian |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China2.College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3.College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China4.HYDROCHINA Huadong Engineering Corporation, Hangzhou 310014, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3) model, the long-term sea level trends of global ocean in the 20th and 21st century under IPCC SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2001) are analyzed in this paper. The result shows that global sea level rises about 4.0 cm during 20th century through steric expansion, with an acceleration of 0.004 8 mm/a2; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. CCSM3 simulation also shows that in the 21st century sea level will rise in acceleration; the global sea level will rise 30 cm during the whole century through steric expansion. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies that contribute to sea level change is very different between ocean basins. Significant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean can extend to 2 500 m depth, while the salinity change partially counteracts sea level rise due to this warming. The steric anomalies in the Pacific Ocean occur mainly in the upper 700 m. In the Southern Ocean, steric change can extend to the entire water column. |
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| Keywords: | sea level change long tem trend CCSM3 IPCC SRES A2 scenario steric |
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