| 海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对厦门海域极值水位的影响及危险性预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 许炜宏,蔡榕硕.海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对厦门海域极值水位的影响及危险性预估[J].海洋学报,2021,43(5):14-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许炜宏 蔡榕硕 |
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| 作者单位： | 自然资源部第三海洋研究所，福建 厦门 361005 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划 (2017YFA0604902，2017YFA0604903，2017YFA0604901）；自然资源部第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（海三科2017030） |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化背景下海平面上升、强台风和风暴潮对我国东南沿海地区的洪涝灾害影响日益严重，为应对气候变化的影响，本文以位于我国东南沿海的厦门地区为例，应用多种海洋大气观测资料和数理统计及模拟方法，分析了历史上9914号和1614号两次台风对厦门海域极端海面高度(极值水位)的影响，预估了未来海平面上升情景下厦门海域极值水位的变化及其危险性。结果表明:(1) 9914号台风期间，天文大潮、风暴增水和强降水的同时出现造成了厦门沿海地区超警戒极值水位(732 cm)的出现；(2) 风(向岸强风)、雨(强降水)、浪(巨浪)、潮(高潮位)、流(急流)等多致灾因子的共同作用是厦门沿海地区发生严重灾情的重要原因；(3) 在温室气体中等和高排放(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情景下，到2050年(2100年)，当前百年一遇的极值水位将分别变为30年(2年)一遇(RCP4.5)和25年(低于1年)一遇(RCP8.5)的频繁极端事件。这表明未来厦门沿海极值水位的危险性将显著上升，应采取充分的适应措施降低洪涝灾害风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 海平面上升 台风 风暴潮 极值水位 危险性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-16 |
Impacts of sea level rise,strong typhoon and storm surge on extreme sea level in coastal waters of Xiamen and hazards estimation |
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| Institution: | Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China |
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| Abstract: | Sea level rise, strong typhoon and storm surge have increasingly serious impacts on coastal flood disasters in the southeastern China in the context of climate change. To address the climate change and estimate the hazard of extreme sea level in the future, based on the multiple data of oceanographic and atmospheric observation and methods of mathematical statistics, the impact of historical strong typhoon No.9914 (Dan) and No.1614 (Meranti) on the extreme sea level in coastal waters of Xiamen and estimates the changes and return of extreme sea level at scenarios of future sea level rise under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was analyzed in this paper. The results show that: (1) astronomical tide, storm surges and heavy precipitation induced the extreme sea level event (732 cm) during the period of strong typhoon No.9914; (2) the combined impacts of multiple hazards such as wind (ashore gale), rainfall (heavy precipitation), waves (giant waves), tides (high tide) and current (torrents) is an important cause of serious disasters in coastland of Xiamen; (3) under the medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), by 2050 and 2100, recent 1-in-100-year extreme sea level event will become 1-in-30-year (1-in-2-year) and 1-in-25-year (1-in-less than 1-year). It shows that the hazards of extreme sea level on coastland of Xiamen will increase significantly, and high adaptation measures in Xiamen should be taken to reduce the risk on coastal flood hazards in the future. |
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