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IPCC AR4模式对热带气旋热力控制因子的模拟评估
引用本文:余锦华,唐盛,吴立广,施能.IPCC AR4模式对热带气旋热力控制因子的模拟评估[J].海洋学报,2011,33(6):39-54.
作者姓名:余锦华  唐盛  吴立广  施能
作者单位:南京信息工程大学 气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,大气科学学院,江苏 南京 210044
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806009);"973"项目(2009CB421503);国家自然科学基金(40775060)。
摘    要:海平面温度是影响热带气旋活动重要的大尺度环境热力控制因子,根据1948-1999年热带地区(30°S-30°N)海平面温度(SST)的气候场、线性趋势、年代际变化与年际变化的空间结构特征,分别就24个IPCC AR4模式的模拟性能进行评估.结果表明,虽然24个IPCC AR4模式对SST气候场的模拟性能都比较好,但大部...

关 键 词:IPCC  AR4模式  热带气旋  热力控制因子  模拟评估
收稿时间:2009/8/21 0:00:00
修稿时间:6/7/2010 12:00:00 AM

Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models
YU Jin-hu,TANG Sheng,WU Li-guang and SHI Neng.Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2011,33(6):39-54.
Authors:YU Jin-hu  TANG Sheng  WU Li-guang and SHI Neng
Institution:Key Loboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Atmospheric Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing 210044,China
Abstract:Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important environmental thermodynamic factor affecting tropical cyclone (TC)activity, the fidelity of SST over tropical regions(30°S-30°N)in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report(AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field, spatial patterns in linear trends, multidecadal and interannual changes of SST during 1948-1999. It is found that although 24 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state, most of SST in models shows a cold bias in comparison with ERSST. Regional mean annual SST gives a warming trend in all models, but there is much discrepancy between the amplitude of trends in models and ERSST. According to the performance of simulation in spatial structure of linear trends and multidecadal changes, six (INM CM3_0, MRI_CGCM2,3.2a, INGV_ECHAM4, UKMO_HADCM3,NCAR_PCM1, MPI_ECHAM5) of 24 IPCC AR4 models should not be ensemble to study a global warming scenario of tropical cyclone activity because of much difference of spatial patterns between these models and ERSST.The first five models, their spatial patterns of linear trends and multidecadal variations represent well with that of ERSST, are CGCM3.1_T47, GISS ER, MIROC_HIRES, GFDL CM2.1, GFDL CM2.0, successively. It also showed that both linear trend and multidecadal change of SST from June to October, a major TC active season, are simulated better over North Atlantic basin than over north western Pacific and South China Sea after evaluating the performance of SST over above three TC active regions. 18 of 24 models have significant relationship in multidecadal series between simulated SST and ERSST over North Atlantic. The performance of UKMO_HADGEM1 and MPI_ECHAM5 in interannual change of SST over north western Pacific is good enough to use them but it is UKMO_HADCM3 in South China Sea.
Keywords:IPCC AR4 models  tropical cyclone  thermodynamic control factors  simulation assessment
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