| 基于捕捞努力量的中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔业入渔预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈洋洋,陈新军,郭立新,王冉,肖卫平,徐良琦.基于捕捞努力量的中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔业入渔预测分析[J].海洋学报,2017,39(10):32-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈洋洋 陈新军 郭立新 王冉 肖卫平 徐良琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306 |
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| 基金项目： | 海洋局公益性行业专项（20155014）；上海市科技创新计划（15DZ1202200）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 中西太平洋是全球主要的鲣鱼（Katsuwonus pelamis）围网作业渔场，渔场极易受到海洋环境的影响，但渔场分布在众多岛国的管辖海域，如何科学指导企业准确入渔是重要的研究课题。本文根据1995-2012年中西太平洋鲣鱼围网捕捞生产统计数据，选取产量最高的22个海区（5°×5°），结合Niñ；o3.4区海表温度距平值（SSTA）和作业海域表温（SST），研究中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔场的空间分布规律，同时，以各海区捕捞努力量（作业次数）所占的百分比为入渔指标，建立基于环境因子的入渔决策模型。研究认为，中西太平洋鲣鱼捕捞努力量在纬度方向上主要分布于5°S~5°N，其累计捕捞努力量占所有作业海区的87.4%，其中以130°~140°E经度范围为最高，其捕捞努力量占22个海区的45.08%。入渔指标与Niñ；o3.4区的SSTA、作业海域SST均符合正态模型（P<0.01），Niñ；o3.4区的SSTA最适值为0.25℃，作业海域SST最适值在29.5℃左右。对预测和实际排名前十的海域进行统计发现，预测值与实际值基本一致。研究认为，所建立的入渔预测模型可有效指导企业的渔业生产，为提高企业生产效率提供支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 中西太平洋 鲣鱼 捕捞努力量 空间分布 预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/12/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/6/7 0:00:00 |
Preliminary analysis of predict model of fishing effort spatial distribution for skipjack tuna catches by purse seine in the west-central Pacific Ocean |
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| Chen Yangyang,Chen Xinjun,Guo Lixin,Wang Ran,Xiao Weiping and Xu Liangqi.Preliminary analysis of predict model of fishing effort spatial distribution for skipjack tuna catches by purse seine in the west-central Pacific Ocean[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2017,39(10):32-45. |
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| Authors: | Chen Yangyang Chen Xinjun Guo Lixin Wang Ran Xiao Weiping and Xu Liangqi |
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| Institution: | College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China,College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China,College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China,College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China,Shanghai Fisheries Company, Shanghai 200090, China and Shanghai Fisheries Company, Shanghai 200090, China |
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| Abstract: | The west-central Pacific Ocean is the world's most important fishing ground for skipjack tuna (katsuwonus pelamis), this fishing area is always impact by ocean environment, especially sea surface temperature (SST) and Niño 3.4 index(SSTA). However, the fishing ground of skipjack tuna is widely distributed in the waters of many island countries, how to scientific guide the entry-fishing is an important studying object. According to the production data of skipjack tuna in the west-central Pacific Ocean during 1995-2012, and the total of 22 fishing zones (5°×5°) with the high catch are selected to analyze the spatial variation of fishing effort for skipjack tuna in central-west Pacific Ocean. The percentage of fishing effort is also regarded as the index of entry-fishing, and the optimal entry-fishing model between the index of entry-fishing and SST or SSTA is established. The results showed that main fishing efforts were focused in the area of 5°S-5°N in the direction of latitude, accounting for 87.4% of the total fishing effort. The area of 130°-140°E was the major fishing zone area in the longitudinal direction, accounting for 45.08% of the total fishing effort in the 22 fishing zones. The relationships between the index of entry-fishing and SSTA or SST all showed the normal distribution (P<0.01) for each fishing zone. The suitable value of SSTA model was on early 0.25℃, and the suitable value of SST model was nearly 29.5℃. For the top 10 ranking of entry-fishing index, we find that the actual index and predicted value is the same. It is concluded that this entry-fishing forecasting model can effectively predict fishing area distribution, which could give us a suitable advice for fisheries industries in the future. |
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| Keywords: | west-central Pacific Ocean skipjack tuna fishing effort spatial distribution predict model |
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