| 基于CESM气候模式的ENSO后报试验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李熠,陈幸荣,谭晶,黄勇勇,蔡怡.基于CESM气候模式的ENSO后报试验[J].海洋学报,2015,37(9):39-50. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李熠 陈幸荣 谭晶 黄勇勇 蔡怡 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.国家海洋环境预报中心 海洋气候预测室, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项目——中国近海短期气候预测技术及其应用(201105019);国家科技支撑计划——气候变化对海岸带影响与风险评估技术(2012BAC19B08);国家自然科学基金项目——全球变暖"间断"现象中的海洋热量传输机制研究(41440039)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)开发的通用地球系统模式(CESM),本文设计了nudging次表层海温的同化方案,进行了后报实验。对1982-2011年后报结果的分析表明,通过nudging同化,模式对ENSO现象有一定的模拟和预报能力,对赤道太平洋SST、纬向风、降水等海洋、大气要素等的后报结果与GODAS和NCEP再分析资料较接近,可以较好地重现历次厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件中异常东传的过程,超前1、3、6个月时,模式预报的Nio3指数与CPC指数的相关性分别达到0.88、0.81、0.70。但模式同时也表现出一定的春季预报障碍,秋季起报的后报效果最好,春季最差。对1982/1983和1997/1999两个厄尔尼诺事件的分析表明,模式后报的纬向风、热通量、风应力等大气变量的响应较实际滞后,而海洋的变化与实际情况相似,这与我们的同化方案设置有关,即模式只同化了次表层海温,进而强迫大气的响应,从而导致大气的变化较滞后。
|
| 关 键 词： | CESM模式 nudging同化 ENSO后报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/9/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/3/17 0:00:00 |
An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM |
| |
| Li Yi,Chen Xingrong,Tan Jing,Huang Yongyong and Cai Yi.An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2015,37(9):39-50. |
| |
| Authors: | Li Yi Chen Xingrong Tan Jing Huang Yongyong and Cai Yi |
| |
| Institution: | 1.The Division of Ocean Climate Prediction, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China2.The Division of Ocean Climate Prediction, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China |
| |
| Abstract: | An ENSO forecast system based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is developed. We use a simple sub-surface sea temperature nudging scheme to generate realistic SST distribution. Hindcast results for the period 1982-2011 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events,including the strong 1997/1998 warm episode,are successfully predicted with SST,zonal wind and precipitation matching well with GODAS and NCEP datasets. The correlation coefficient of Niño3 index scores 0.88,0.81 and 0.70 at the 1-,3-and 6-month lead time respectively. However,the model shows a "spring prediction barrier" with the best predictability in autumn and the worst in spring. The comparisons of zonal wind,heat flux,SST anomaly,wind stress and sub-surface temperature of 1982/1983 and 1997/1999 demonstrate that the atmospheric response is latter than that of the ocean,which is in contrast with observing and reanalysis data. This is due to the ocean-only data assimilation scheme,which forces a delayed atmospheric response. |
| |
| Keywords: | CESM nudging ENSO hindcast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
