| 北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 方珂,余锦华.北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响[J].热带海洋学报,2019,38(5):42-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方珂 余锦华 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 江苏 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41575083);国家自然科学基金(41730961) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋生成频数 印度洋-太平洋海表温度异常梯度 北大西洋三极型式海表温度异常 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-04-04 |
Influence of sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans of the Northern Hemisphere on the frequency of tropical cyclone generation in the western North Pacific in summer |
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| Ke FANG,Jinhua YU.Influence of sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans of the Northern Hemisphere on the frequency of tropical cyclone generation in the western North Pacific in summer[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography,2019,38(5):42-51. |
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| Authors: | Ke FANG Jinhua YU |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, NECP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2018 and numerical model (ECHAM4) simulation outputs, in view of the unusually large number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific such as in 1994 and 2018, the modalities of SST anomalies (SSTA) and their influence mechanism were studied, in terms of their impacts on the increase of TC generation. It is suggested that the warming of the central tropical Pacific and the cooling of the Indian Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere are the main reasons for the increase of TC generated in the western North Pacific in summer, and the North Atlantic negative tripolar type of SSTA leads to further increase in the TC generated. The central tropical Pacific warming and the Indian Ocean cooling produce anomalous westerly wind and cyclonic circulation anomalies in the east of the Philippines. The North Atlantic negative tripolar type of SSTA excites cyclonic circulation anomalies from the South China Sea and the Philippine Seas to the southeast coast waters of China. The former in the central Pacific Ocean and the latter in the South China Sea create local environments conducive to TC generation. In the summers of 1994 and 2018, the central tropical Pacific SSTAs were warm, the Indian Ocean SSTAs were cold, and the North Atlantic showed negative tripolar type of SSTA. The number of TC generated in the western Pacific Ocean increased greatly. In the past 30 years, when the central tropical Pacific warmed up and the Indian Ocean cooled down, the North Atlantic showed a stronger negative tripolar type of SSTA than that before 1989, the linear correlation between the Pacific Northwest TC generation and Indian Ocean-Pacific SSTA gradients was more significant. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone genesis number Indian Ocean-Pacific SSTA gradient North Atlantic tripolar type of sea surface temperature anomaly |
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