| 神经网络在珠江口风暴潮预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李未,王如云,卢长娜,张长宽.神经网络在珠江口风暴潮预报中的应用[J].热带海洋学报,2006,25(3):10-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李未 王如云 卢长娜 张长宽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学海洋学院,江苏,南京,210098;水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210098
2. 河海大学海洋学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点实验室基金;教育部科学技术基金;江苏省普通高等学校高新技术产业发展项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 当风暴潮沿河道上溯时,处于珠江口地区的灯笼山测站和黄埔测站的水位之间存在着非线性响应关系。文章利用BP人工神经网络,建立了两测站台风暴潮和天文潮的综合增水效应预报模型,对9903、9908和9910号台风期间黄埔站的综合增水进行了预报,并针对不同预报时段对计算结果和潮位极值的准确程度进行了相应的讨论。结果表明,该方法的预报精度较高。最后通过与纯风暴增水模型的对比,说明了综合增水模型的优越性。
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| 关 键 词： | BP人工神经网络 珠江口 风暴潮 预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-5470（2006）03-0010-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-08 |
Forecast of storm surge in Zhujiang River estuary by means of artificial neural network |
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| LI Wei,WANG Ru-yun,LU Chang-na,ZHANG Chang-kuan.Forecast of storm surge in Zhujiang River estuary by means of artificial neural network[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography,2006,25(3):10-13. |
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| Authors: | LI Wei WANG Ru-yun LU Chang-na ZHANG Chang-kuan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Ocean, Hohai Univ. , Nanjing 210098, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | When the tropical storm surge goes upstream along the river,there is a nonlinear response in sea level between Denglongshan and Huangpu stations in the Zhujiang River estuary.In this paper,the sea levels at Huangpu station are forecasted by using BP artificial neural network during typhoons 9903,9908 and 9910.The model integrates the typhoon influence and astronomic tides together.Comparing the model results with the observation data in different prediction periods at the stations,it can be found that the method is feasible.Finally,by contrast with the stormy sea-level model,the coupling model is proved to be superior to it. |
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| Keywords: | BP artificial neural network Zhujiang River estuary storm surge forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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