| Maximum Entropy Estimation of n-Year Extreme Waveheights |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐德伦 张军 郑桂珍 |
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| 作者单位： | PhysicalOceanographyLaboratory,OceanUnivershyofChina,Qingdao266003,China |
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| 基金项目： | ThisworkisfinanciallysupportedbythePh.D.FoundationoftheMinistryoftheEducationofChina (No .2 0 0 0 4 2 30 8) |
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| 摘 要： | A new method for estimating the n (50 or 100) -year return-period waveheight, namely, the extreme waveheight expected to occur in n years, is presented on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the method are as follows: (1) based on the Hamihonian principle, a maximum entropy probability density function for the extreme waveheight H, f(H)= aH^γe-^βH4 is derived from a Lagrangian function subject to some necessary and rational constraints; (2) the parameters α,β, and γ in the function me expressed in terms of the mean H, variance V=(H-H^-)^2—— and bias B = (H - H^-)^3——; and (3) with H^-, V and B estimated from observed data, the n-year return-period wave height Hn is computed in accordance with the formula 1/1-F(Hn)=n, where F( Hn ) is defined as F( Hn ) = ∫0^Hnf(H)dH .Examples of estimating the 50 and 100-year return period waveheighls by the present method and by some currently used method from observed data acquired from two hydrographic stations are given. A comparison of the estimated results shows that the present method is superior to the others.
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| 关 键 词： | 最大熵 海浪高度 周期循环 拉格朗日方程 随机变量法 |
Maximum Entropy Estimation of n-Year Extreme Waveheights |
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| XU De-lun ,ZHANG Jun and ZHENG Gui-zhen Physical Oceanography Laboratory,Ocean University of China,Qingdao ,China.Maximum Entropy Estimation of n-Year Extreme Waveheights[J].China Ocean Engineering,2004,18(2):307-314. |
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| Authors: | XU De-lun ZHANG Jun and ZHENG Gui-zhen Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Qingdao China |
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| Institution: | XU De-lun 1,ZHANG Jun and ZHENG Gui-zhen Physical Oceanography Laboratory,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | maximum entropy n-year return-period waveheights Lagrangian function |
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